The best teams ever, take four

So far, I’ve explained my rating system; and compared its current assessment of the top teams to that of the ICC system.  But we can look back further.  Here are the teams that my system has rated as top since 1952, and on the right, the comparable ICC ratings, courtesy of Wikipedia. In the following table, team leading in my ratings (and the dates of its spell on top) are on the left; the comparable data from the ICC ratings are on the right, and the spells have been laid out so that the start dates of each spell in either rating list are sequentially ordered, top to bottom and left to right. This is less complex than it sounds, so let's have a look at the data:

18 Aug 1934  28 Jan 1955  Australia     Australia     Jan 1952  May 1955
28 Jan 1955  21 Jul 1955  England       England       Jun 1955  Feb 1958
21 Jul 1955  12 Jul 1956  Australia             
12 Jul 1956  28 Feb 1958  England                                              
28 Feb 1958   5 Jun 1958  Australia     Australia     Mar 1958  Jul 1958
 5 Jun 1958   5 Dec 1958  England       England       Aug 1958  Dec 1958
 5 Dec 1958  27 Jan 1961  Australia     Australia     Jan 1959  Dec 1963
27 Jan 1961  10 Feb 1961  England                               
10 Feb 1961  22 Aug 1963  Australia             
22 Aug 1963  14 Mar 1968  West Indies   West Indies   Jan 1964  Dec 1968
14 Mar 1968   6 Jun 1968  England                               
 6 Jun 1968  26 Dec 1968  West Indies       
26 Dec 1968  14 Feb 1969  England       South Africa  Jan 1969  Dec 1969
14 Feb 1969  24 Jul 1969  Australia             
24 Jul 1969   7 Aug 1969  England                               
 7 Aug 1969  28 Nov 1969  Australia             
28 Nov 1969  19 Feb 1970  England       England       Jan 1970  Jan 1973     
19 Feb 1970  27 Nov 1970  South Africa      
27 Nov 1970  30 Dec 1972  England                               
30 Dec 1972  11 Aug 1977  Australia     Australia     Feb 1973  Mar 1973
                                        India         Apr 1973  Jun 1974
                                        Australia     Jul 1974  Jan 1978     

11 Aug 1977   2 Dec 1977  England                               
 2 Dec 1977  30 Dec 1977  Australia             
30 Dec 1977   2 Jan 1978  England                               
 2 Jan 1978  10 Aug 1978  West Indies   West Indies   Feb 1978  Jan 1979
10 Aug 1978   1 Feb 1980  England       England       Feb 1979  Aug 1980
 1 Feb 1980   8 Feb 1980  West Indies       
 8 Feb 1980  15 Feb 1980  India                     
15 Feb 1980  28 Aug 1980  England                               
28 Aug 1980  29 Jul 1982  West Indies   India         Sep 1980  Feb 1981
                                        West Indies   Mar 1981  Jul 1988
29 Jul 1982  12 Aug 1982  England                               
12 Aug 1982   3 Jan 1983  West Indies       
 3 Jan 1983  23 Feb 1983  Pakistan              
23 Feb 1983  11 Mar 1983  West Indies       
11 Mar 1983  15 Apr 1983  Pakistan              
15 Apr 1983  28 Apr 1983  West Indies       
28 Apr 1983  14 Sep 1983  Pakistan              
14 Sep 1983  26 Dec 1991  West Indies   Pakistan      Aug 1988  Sep 1988
                                        West Indies   Oct 1988  Jan 1991 
                                        Australia     Feb 1991  Apr 1991
                                        West Indies   May 1991  Jul 1992
26 Dec 1991   2 Jan 1992  Australia
 2 Jan 1992  25 Jan 1992  West Indies        
25 Jan 1992   8 Sep 1992  Australia     Australia     Aug 1992  Jan 1993
 8 Sep 1992  26 Dec 1992  West Indies   
26 Dec 1992  23 Jan 1993  Australia              
23 Jan 1993  22 Jun 1995  West Indies   West Indies   Feb 1993  Aug 1995   
22 Jun 1995   6 Jul 1995  Australia              
 6 Jul 1995  27 Jul 1995  West Indies       
27 Jul 1995  13 Jun 1997  Australia     India         Sep 1995  Nov 1995
                                        Australia     Dec 1995  Jul 1999
13 Jun 1997  20 Jun 1997  West Indies      
20 Jun 1997  18 Mar 1998  Australia             
18 Mar 1998  25 Mar 1998  South Africa      
25 Mar 1998  27 Mar 1998  Australia             
27 Mar 1998  23 Jul 1998  South Africa      
23 Jul 1998  26 Dec 1998  Australia             
26 Dec 1998   5 Mar 1999  South Africa      
 5 Mar 1999  13 Mar 1999  Australia             
13 Mar 1999  26 Dec 1999  South Africa  South Africa  Aug 1999  Dec 1999
26 Dec 1999  24 Nov 2009  Australia     Australia     Jan 2000  Feb 2000
                                        South Africa  Mar 2000  Mar 2000
                                        Australia     Apr 2000  Aug 2009 
                                        South Africa  Aug 2009  Nov 2009
24 Nov 2009  14 Jan 2010  India         India         Nov 2009  Aug 2011      
14 Jan 2010  17 Jan 2010  Australia             
17 Jan 2010   6 Feb 2010  India                    
 6 Feb 2010  14 Feb 2010  Australia             
14 Feb 2010  19 Mar 2010  India                     
19 Mar 2010   3 Aug 2010  Australia             
 3 Aug 2010   6 Jul 2011  India                     
 6 Jul 2011   3 Feb 2012  England       England       Aug 2011  Aug 2012
 3 Feb 2012  30 Nov 2012  Australia     South Africa  Aug 2012  May 2014
30 Nov 2012  25 Nov 2015  South Africa  Australia     May 2014  Jul 2014
                                        South Africa  Jul 2014  Jan 2016
25 Nov 2015  -            Australia     India         Jan 2016  -

There are some general conclusions that can be drawn at once.  Firstly, both systems agree the majority of the time.  This might not be intuitively clear from the table without a close look, but there are long periods of convergence, while the periods of divergence are quite frequent but mostly short, and are often found during an era where one strong team was in the process of being replaced by another and the overall pecking order was actually quite unclear.  Secondly, these transitions generally come sooner in my system, but also less decisively (there are several sequences where two teams alternate in the lead for a while, whereas the ICC system has a greater tendency to feature clean breaks).  There is in fact a reason for this: the ICC recalculates the ratings after each series, whereas I recalculate after each match (which means recent results count immediately, but a close series between two top teams could repeatedly change the team out in front).  

And there’s a deeper reason both why the two ratings are in broad agreement.  The ICC system is not strictly speaking an Elo-system, but rather a somewhat peculiar system that nonetheless has certain similarities to one. In our next posts, we’ll try to understand exactly how the ICC system works.