Test Cricket World Ratings 26/2/2106

Coming into their recent series against New Zealand, Australia were already top of my world ratings; but only in second place in the ICC's.  And their opponents had home advantage, and their own rating (on my system) was the highest it had ever been.  It could have been a tough pair of matches for Australia: instead, they've finished the series with two comfortable wins.  Indeed, the second match was notable for the fact that Brendon McCullum scored a brilliant century for his team, New Zealand made over 700 runs in the match, and still they lost comfortably by 7 wickets.  One sign of a strong team is that they sometimes roll their opposition over, as Australia did in the first test; another sign is that even when the opposition don't do so badly, they still get crushed in the end.  This was a strong performance from Australia and now even the ICC agree with me in putting Australia in the number one spot, displacing an Indian team that held that honour briefly but didn't even get to play a match before losing it again.  Australia have had a very good run since losing the Ashes to England last summer; they could be top of the ratings for some time.  For New Zealand, however, thing now look less rosy, especially with the talented McCullum calling it a day.

So here are the latest ratings in my system: 

Australia     166  +11
India         116    
Pakistan       93    
South Africa   76    
England        71    
New Zealand    43  -11
Sri Lanka      -4    
West Indies   -75   
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -315

Australia's two wins have almost doubled their lead over India, which is now a decent 50 points.  Note that the series neatly indicates one way the rankings work.  Australia's first win increased their rating by 13 points (and decreased New Zealand's by the same margin): this meant a better result was predicted for the second test, so when that victory came, it was only worth +/- 11 points.

This blog might be quiet for a while as there's now a gap in the test cricket program before Sri Lanka tour England early next summer.  England followed up their win over Australia with a defeat (against Pakistan) and a victory (against South Africa) on their winter tours. Sri Lanka's highest ever ranking was 95 in 2009; a current ranking of -4 is disappointing, given that the presence in test cricket Bangladesh and Zimbabwe, two historically weak sides, reduce the quality of the average rating represented by zero. But this state of play means, of course, that England will be fancied to win.  Note, however, that England's 75 point margin is less than the 95 point gap (in the opposite direction) that now separates them from last summer's victims.