Cricket World Ratings 16th September 2019

A long English summer of international cricket is now over.  The Ashes have been retained by Australia, but the series was drawn 2-2.  The result seems fair: England won one match by the faintest of margins, but had the advantage in a rain-affected draw.  With the awesome Steve Smith, Australia generally looked the team most likely to, but their highest opening stand in 10 attempts was a pathetic 18.  Overall, it was an enjoyable encounter, but both sides still have selection problems going forward.  At the end of it, my world ratings look like this:

India         227
New Zealand   160 
Australia     159 -19
England       151 +20
South Africa  140
Sri Lanka     113 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122    
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -295
Ireland      -339

There' s little to choose between England and Australia, and that looks about right to me.  The official ratings tell a similar, but slightly different story:

India         115
New Zealand   109
South Africa  108
England       104 -1
Australia      99 +1
Sri Lanka      95
Pakistan       84
West Indies    80
Bangladesh     61
Afghanistan    55
Zimbabwe       16
Ireland         0 

South Africa tour India next month.  It's always hard for teams to win in India, and they won't start as favourites, but it should be a good contest.

Cricket World Ratings 9th September 2019

England have won the 50 over World Cup this summer; but in spite of home advantage, they have failed to retake the Ashes, the prize awarded to the winners of the series they play against Australia. That trophy is retained by its holders, not shared, in the event of a drawn series; and Australia, who won the last time the two teams played, are now one-up with one to play. England pulled off a freakish comeback win in the 3rd test, and came unexpectedly close to securing a draw in the 4th to keep their hopes alive.  But Australia, led from the front by their brilliant captain Steve Smith, have looked the stronger side throughout and now cannot be defeated in the series.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan lost every game they played in the Word Cup; but have just pulled off a notable away win, against Bangladesh, a very surprising result.  My cricket world ratings now look like this:

India         227
Australia     178 +27
New Zealand   160
South Africa  140
England       131 -28
Sri Lanka     113 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122 -39     
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -295 +39
Ireland      -339

The official ratings, incorporating both the Banglades-Afghanistan result, and also India's recent victory in the West Indies since I last updated these, now look as follows:

India         115 +2
New Zealand   109
South Africa  108
England       105
Australia      98
Sri Lanka      95
Pakistan       84
West Indies    80 -2
Bangladesh     61 -4
Afghanistan    55 +30
Zimbabwe       16
Ireland         0 

The final Ashes test stars this week.

Cricket World Ratings 3rd September 2019

New Zealand lost their first test match in Sri Lanka recently, but came back to win the 2nd test.  India are other tourists who have done well, thrashing the West Indies in both matches of their recent series.  Australia also made a great start in England, reaching the brink of a 2-0 lead (with two to play) that would have ensured they retained the Ashes.  But in one of the most remarkable test matches of all time the hosts, who'd been bowled all out for a pathetic 67 in their first innings, scored more than this from their last wicket of the match, to rescue the game.  Hero for the home team was Ben Stokes, scoring an improbable six-heavy century while farming the strike. The net effect on my world ratings is as follows:

India         227 +23
New Zealand   160 +23  
England       159 +18
Australia     151 -18
South Africa  140   
Sri Lanka     113 -22 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22 -24     
Bangladesh    -83      
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -334  
Ireland      -339 

So India are dominant, but it's very close for 2nd place. The latest official ratings are as follows:

India         113 -3
New Zealand   109 +1
South Africa  108 +3
England       105 +1
Australia      98 -6
Sri Lanka      95 +2
Pakistan       84 -4
West Indies    82 +5
Bangladesh     65 +3
Afghanistan    25
Zimbabwe       16 +3
Ireland         0 

These are extended for the first time to include test newbies Afghanistan and Ireland; the former already ranked above Zimbabwe. They also show signs of their annual reset - whereas my ratings are continuously updated, the matches that count in the official rankings are reconsidered annually. so everyone's rating has changed since I last looked.  But the pecking order is pretty much unchanged and similar to my list, except for the relatively elevated position enjoyed by South Africa.

Next up: two more tests to decide the Ashes, and a one-off match between Bangladesh and Afghanistan. 

Cricket World Ratings 18th August 2019

Since the spring, England have won the one-day World Cup, albeit by the narrowest of margins; at one point where 43-7 in their first ever test match against newbies Ireland, though they eventually recovered to win; and are 0-1 down at home in the Ashes against Australia after two of the five scheduled games, with Steve Smith's batting so far the main difference between the two sides.  Meanwhile, New Zealand, who lost the World Cup final by a whisker, have travelled to Sri Lanka; but have lost their first test there.  The net effect on the world rankings is as follows:

India         204 
Australia     169 +24
England       141 -22
Sri Lanka     141 +19 
South Africa  140  
New Zealand   133 -18  
Pakistan       80  
West Indies     2      
Bangladesh    -83      
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -334  
Ireland      -339  -1


I have discovered some minor errors in the previously published rankings, hence the adjustments may seem slightly out compared with what you might calculate directly.  The most notable feature of the rankings as they are is the incredible small distance between a number of the leading sides.  This may sort out further over the remainder of the summer: England still have three tests to play against Australia, New Zealand play another test in Sri Lanka, while India travel to the West Indies before the month is out.

Cricket World Ratings 31st March 2019

Some things are more important than cricket.  Bangladesh's national side had a tough time of things in New Zealand, losing the first two tests of their scheduled series; but could easily have been slaughtered in the terrible attack on a mosque they were visting, that happened soon afterwards.  The third test was cancelled; I doubt many of those who would have been involved were thinking too much about cricket at that time.  Meanwhile, Afghanistan have recorded their first test win, against fellow newbies Ireland.  My cricket world ratings now look like this:

India         202
England       172        
New Zealand   149 +10
South Africa  138  
Australia     133    
Sri Lanka     121    
Pakistan       78
West Indies     1     
Bangladesh    -83 -10     
Zimbabwe     -248                 
Afghanistan  -329 +18
Ireland      -334 -19

All the ratings have been slightly adjusted, after I realised (when considering the recently cancelled game) that I had been counting cancelled matches as draws; I think it's better to simply ignore them, and recalculating the ratings, this leads to a slight shift in most team's ratings.  The official ratings, meanwhile, are now as follows:

India        116
New Zealand  108 +1
South Africa 105 
Australia    104
England      104
Sri Lanka     93 
Pakistan      88   
West Indies   77   
Bangladesh    68 -1  
Zimbabwe      13
 
The normal proviso applies here that Afghanistan and Ireland haven't yet played enoigh matches to qualify for a score.

But that's it for the moment.  The World Cup is approaching, and there's no more test cricket until July; when Ireland get to play England at Lords, ahead of the English side squaring off against Australia in what could prove a closely balanced Ashes series.

Cricket World Ratings 23rd February 2019

My cricket world ratings are supposed to be predictive: each team's rating is adjusted after each match based on how far it differs from a result predicted by the difference in their previous ratings.  If the ratings were perfect, the result would always be as predicted and the ratings would stay the same.  Obviously, this doesn't happen: unexpected results occur, and the predictions are typically for fractions of a win that are not in fact achieveable in practice.  But when games go more or less as expected, the actual result is close to the prediction and the ratings don't change much.

So only a short time ago, England and South Africa were vying with India for first place in the rankings, while the West Indies and Sri Lanka both appeared to be in a bad way.  But England lost their first two tests in the Caribbean, before saving some pride (but not the series) in the third; and now Sri Lanka have won two-out-of-two in South Africa, making them the first ever Asian team to win there.  It's a gloriously unpredicted result, but it does have the effect of leaving India clearly in front of the rankings overall, in spite of their thrashing in England last summer. The ratings now look like this:

India         204 
England       173        
New Zealand   141
South Africa  140 -32
Australia     135    
Sri Lanka     122 +32   
Pakistan       80
West Indies     2      
Bangladesh    -73     
Zimbabwe     -252        
Ireland      -320          
Afghanistan  -352

New Zealand rise to third, the gap between third and sixth is tiny, and even between first and sixth, the gap of 82 points contrasts with a gap of 150 points this time last year and 168 points in February 2017.  In the official ratings, New Zealand are even more highly considered:

India        116
New Zealand  107
South Africa 105 -5 
Australia    104
England      104
Sri Lanka     93 +4
Pakistan      88   
West Indies   77   
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13


Next up: New Zealand try to defend (and improve upon) their lofty positions by entertaining Bangladesh in three test matches, starting in a few days' time.

Cricket World Ratings 16th February 2019

South Africa's results have been pretty good over the past year; indeed, they have been in first place in my world ratings, albeit during a period where no team has been dominant. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka have been in a state of steady decline: in 2016 I had them in 4th place, but in my most recent ratings, they were a miserable 7th.  So it's a bit of a shock that they've just won their first match in South Africa, and it would still have been a shocking thing to contemplate when they lost their 9th wicket in their final innings, still 78 runs adrift of victory.  But they pulled off an amazing comback: it will be interesting to see how their hosts respond to this unexpected loss.

India         204 
England       173  
South Africa  172 -35     
New Zealand   141 
Australia     135  
Sri Lanka      90 +35   
Pakistan       80
West Indies     2    
Bangladesh    -73     
Zimbabwe     -252      
Ireland      -320        
Afghanistan  -352

In my world ratings, this has the effect of  returning India to the top slot.  The next (and final) match begins on the 21st.