My cricket world ratings are supposed to be predictive: each team's rating is adjusted after each match based on how far it differs from a result predicted by the difference in their previous ratings. If the ratings were perfect, the result would always be as predicted and the ratings would stay the same. Obviously, this doesn't happen: unexpected results occur, and the predictions are typically for fractions of a win that are not in fact achieveable in practice. But when games go more or less as expected, the actual result is close to the prediction and the ratings don't change much.
So only a short time ago, England and South Africa were vying with India for first place in the rankings, while the West Indies and Sri Lanka both appeared to be in a bad way. But England lost their first two tests in the Caribbean, before saving some pride (but not the series) in the third; and now Sri Lanka have won two-out-of-two in South Africa, making them the first ever Asian team to win there. It's a gloriously unpredicted result, but it does have the effect of leaving India clearly in front of the rankings overall, in spite of their thrashing in England last summer. The ratings now look like this:
India 204
England 173
New Zealand 141
South Africa 140 -32
Australia 135
Sri Lanka 122 +32
Pakistan 80
West Indies 2
Bangladesh -73
Zimbabwe -252
Ireland -320
Afghanistan -352
New Zealand rise to third, the gap between third and sixth is tiny, and
even between first and sixth, the gap of 82 points contrasts with a gap
of 150 points this time last year and 168 points in February 2017. In the official ratings, New Zealand are even more highly considered:
India 116
New Zealand 107
South Africa 105 -5
Australia 104
England 104
Sri Lanka 93 +4
Pakistan 88
West Indies 77
Bangladesh 69
Zimbabwe 13
Next up: New Zealand try to defend (and improve upon) their lofty positions by entertaining Bangladesh in three test matches, starting in a few days' time.
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