Cricket World Ratings 23rd February 2019

My cricket world ratings are supposed to be predictive: each team's rating is adjusted after each match based on how far it differs from a result predicted by the difference in their previous ratings.  If the ratings were perfect, the result would always be as predicted and the ratings would stay the same.  Obviously, this doesn't happen: unexpected results occur, and the predictions are typically for fractions of a win that are not in fact achieveable in practice.  But when games go more or less as expected, the actual result is close to the prediction and the ratings don't change much.

So only a short time ago, England and South Africa were vying with India for first place in the rankings, while the West Indies and Sri Lanka both appeared to be in a bad way.  But England lost their first two tests in the Caribbean, before saving some pride (but not the series) in the third; and now Sri Lanka have won two-out-of-two in South Africa, making them the first ever Asian team to win there.  It's a gloriously unpredicted result, but it does have the effect of leaving India clearly in front of the rankings overall, in spite of their thrashing in England last summer. The ratings now look like this:

India         204 
England       173        
New Zealand   141
South Africa  140 -32
Australia     135    
Sri Lanka     122 +32   
Pakistan       80
West Indies     2      
Bangladesh    -73     
Zimbabwe     -252        
Ireland      -320          
Afghanistan  -352

New Zealand rise to third, the gap between third and sixth is tiny, and even between first and sixth, the gap of 82 points contrasts with a gap of 150 points this time last year and 168 points in February 2017.  In the official ratings, New Zealand are even more highly considered:

India        116
New Zealand  107
South Africa 105 -5 
Australia    104
England      104
Sri Lanka     93 +4
Pakistan      88   
West Indies   77   
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13


Next up: New Zealand try to defend (and improve upon) their lofty positions by entertaining Bangladesh in three test matches, starting in a few days' time.

Cricket World Ratings 16th February 2019

South Africa's results have been pretty good over the past year; indeed, they have been in first place in my world ratings, albeit during a period where no team has been dominant. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka have been in a state of steady decline: in 2016 I had them in 4th place, but in my most recent ratings, they were a miserable 7th.  So it's a bit of a shock that they've just won their first match in South Africa, and it would still have been a shocking thing to contemplate when they lost their 9th wicket in their final innings, still 78 runs adrift of victory.  But they pulled off an amazing comback: it will be interesting to see how their hosts respond to this unexpected loss.

India         204 
England       173  
South Africa  172 -35     
New Zealand   141 
Australia     135  
Sri Lanka      90 +35   
Pakistan       80
West Indies     2    
Bangladesh    -73     
Zimbabwe     -252      
Ireland      -320        
Afghanistan  -352

In my world ratings, this has the effect of  returning India to the top slot.  The next (and final) match begins on the 21st.

Cricket World Ratings 12th February 2019

It's been a long time since the West Indies last defeated England in a test series; 2009 in fact, when England hit a low under the captaincy of Andrew Strauss.  England came back from that defeat to register a terrific run of victories.  But now West Indies have triumphed once again.  Having lost the first two test matches, England saved a little pride in the third; but the series has raised serious questions about the balance of their side.  My world ratings now look like this:
   
South Africa  207   
India         204 
England       173 +16         
New Zealand   141 
Australia     135        
Pakistan       80
Sri Lanka      55 
West Indies     2 -17    
Bangladesh    -73     
Zimbabwe     -252      
Ireland      -320      
Afghanistan  -352

England are even worse off in the official ratings, which intriguingly place New Zealand in an atypically high 3rd place:
 
India        116
South Africa 110  
New Zealand  107  
Australia    104
England      104 -4
Sri Lanka     89
Pakistan      88   
West Indies   77 +7    
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13
 
Tomorrow, Sri Lanka begin what could be a tough series in South Africa, while Bangladesh start a  tour of New Zealand before the month is out.

Cricket World Ratings 5th February 2019

Until recently, England had grounds for feeling optimistic about their fortchcoming Ashes series against Australia.  But while Australia have just completed a 2-0 defeat of Sri Lanka, England have just lost, badly, the first two (of three) scheduled tests against the lowly rated West Indians, who have played much better than expected, but who have also exposed weaknesses in England's side of all rounders.  England haven't blooded a test-class specialist batsman successfully since Joe Root; this suddenly seems a more serious concern than previously.  My world rankings currently look like this:
   
South Africa  207  
India         204 
England       157 -30        
New Zealand   141
Australia     135 +12     
Pakistan       80 
Sri Lanka      55 -12
West Indies    19 +31   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

They look better in the offical ratings, but the results from the series in the Carribean will only get added in after the final test.

India        116
South Africa 110  
England      108  
New Zealand  107  
Australia    104 +3 
Sri Lanka     89 -2
Pakistan      88   
West Indies   70    
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

England now have one match left to try and (partially) redeem themselves, but the West Indies must fancy their chances of a famous "blackwash", many years after the last one. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka must now head to South Aftica, where they face a tough task in trying to turn around their losing run.

Cricket World Ratings 28th January 2019

England have been on something of a roll recently, with nine wins in their last ten games. But on paper, their team really doesn't look much like a test side. Instead, it's a side full of all rounders (including two non-keeping wicket keepers!), and while it can sparkle on its day, it hasn't yet acquired that look of invincibility that really great sides have; and in fact, has just been badly beaten in the first match of its current tour to the West Indies.  Meanwhile, another series has begun with a home win, as struggling Australia have seen off an even-more-struggling Sri Lanka.  In my cricket world ratings, this has the effect of leaving South Africa in first place, as follows:
  
South Africa  207  
India         204 
England       187 -35  
New Zealand   141
Australia     123 +15 
Pakistan       80
Sri Lanka      67 -15
West Indies   -12 +34   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Both series resume at the end of the week.

Cricket World Ratings 17th January 2019

India have recently won their first ever test series in Australia; England beat India at home this summer, then cruised to victory in Sri Lanka; and South Africa, who also beat India not too long ago, have just completed a convincing 3-0 home demolition of Pakistan.  In my cricket world ratings, all three sides have very similar scores right now, and it's genuinely hard to assert than any one of them is unambiguously the best in the world. But it is fairly clear that this trio defines the current top three.

England       221    
South Africa  207  +9
India         204         
New Zealand   141
Australia     108     
Sri Lanka      82 
Pakistan       80  -9
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

The offical ratings are similar, although they put India clearly ahead and credit New Zealand with being a little closer to the leaders:

India        116
South Africa 110 +4  
England      108  
New Zealand  107  
Australia    101 
Sri Lanka     91
Pakistan      88 -4   
West Indies   70    
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

Two new series start before the month's end: England visit the West Indies, while Sri Lanka will try their luck in Australia.

Cricket World Ratings 8th January 2019

The end of India's final test in Australia was washed out.  India had had the better chance of winning; but they'll still be quite happy, as the draw ensured a famous series victory, amazingly their first ever in Australia.  Meanwhile, South Africa have beaten Pakistan for the second game in succession.  The latest version of my cricket world ratings looks like ths:

England       221    
India         204  -1   
South Africa  198 +11   
New Zealand   141
Australia     108  +1
Pakistan       89 -11   
Sri Lanka      82   
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Interestingly, India's 98 point advantage going into the final test almost exactly balanced Australia's home advantage under my system, so a draw almost exactly matched the theoretically expected result, and hardly altered the ratings of the two teams.


With the completion of the series down under, the official ratings now look like this:

India        116
England      108
New Zealand  107 
South Africa 106 
Australia    101 -1
Pakistan      92  
Sri Lanka     91 
West Indies   70  
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

Because the ICC ratings don't account for home advantage, Australia's series loss (not just the drawn final test), which the official ratings count as a single event (whereas mine count each test separately), make surprisingly little difference to the scores.

Pakistan's third test in South Africa starts on Friday.