Cricket World Ratings 11th April 2022

 

South Africa have just completed an easy win over Bangladesh, winning both test in a two test home series. These results were more or less as predicted, and make little difference to my test world ratings:

1. India         241 
   
2. Australia     232 
   
3. New Zealand   189 
4. South Africa  173  +7 
   
5. Pakistan      111  
6. England        69 
   
7. Sri Lanka      33  
8. West Indies    -9   
   
9. Bangladesh   -117  -7      
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

The official ratings are likewise little changed:

1. Australia     119
   
2. India         118
3. New Zealand   115
4. South Africa  102 +1
5. England        97
6. Pakistan       93 
7. Sri Lanka      81 
   
8. West Indies    81 
9. Bangladesh     51 -2  
   
10. Zimbabwe       31

But there's no more test cricket scheduled for a month, when Bangladesh will be in action again, this time at home against Sri Lanka.

Cricket World Ratings 30th March 2022

In the past month, India have twice dispatched Sri Lanka; Australia have won 1-0 in a 3 match series in Pakistan; West Indies have defeated an increasingly hapless England by the same margin.  The effect on my world ratings is as follows:

1. India         241 +12
   
2. Australia     232 +20 
   
3. New Zealand   189 
4. South Africa  166 
   
5. Pakistan      111 -20 
6. England        69 -36  
   
7. Sri Lanka      33 -12 
8. West Indies    -9 +36  
   
9. Bangladesh   -110      
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

The official rankings are a little kinder to England, though in general they're highly concordant:

1. Australia     119
   
2. India         118 +2
3. New Zealand   115
4. South Africa  101
5. England        97 -4
6. Pakistan       93 
7. Sri Lanka      81 -2
   
8. West Indies    81 +6 
9. Bangladesh     53  
   
10. Zimbabwe       31

Bangladesh play a two match series in South Africa, starting tomorrow.

Cricket World Ratings 1st March 2022

 

 

South Africa were walloped in their first test on their current tour of New Zealand; but fought back to record a good win in the second drawing the series, and bringing them miuch closer to their hosts in my rankings:

1. India         229 
2. Australia     212 
   
3. New Zealand   189  -32
4. South Africa  166  +32
   
5. Pakistan      131 
6. England       105   
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -110      
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

And the official rankings (which I hadn't updated for a while) now look like this, with Australia going top:

1. Australia     119 +11
   
2. India         116  -8
3. New Zealand   115  -6
   
4. England       101  -6 
5. South Africa  101 +13
   
6. Pakistan       93 
7. Sri Lanka      83
   
8. West Indies    75 
9. Bangladesh     53  +6 
   
10. Zimbabwe       31  

India v Sri Lanka, Pakistan v Australia, and West Indies v England all kick off within the next week.

Cricket World Ratings 21st February 2022

 

South Africa recently won at home against mighty India, while New Zealand lost a shock game to Bangladesh.  But in New Zealand to play two matches, South Africa have just been mightily thrashed in the first game.  In my ratings, New Zealand overtake Australia, while South Africa's margin over England is reduced:

1. India         229 
2. New Zealand   221  +11
3. Australia     212 
4. South Africa  134  -12
   
5. Pakistan      131 
6. England       105   
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -110      
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

There's another game to come in this series, then three new series start in early March: Sri Lanka go to India, Australia go to Pakistan, and England travel to the West Indies.

Cricket World Ratings 16th January 2021

There have been some interesting cricket matches played recently.  India won their first game on tour in South Africa, reaching a rating of 285 in my system, but lost the two subsequent tests in a closely-fought series.  Bangldesh drew a series in New Zealand.  Their win in the first test has been claimed as the most unexpected result in the history of test mach cricket, and my own data supports this.  In my rating system, the difference in ratings between two teams, adjusted by a factor for home advantage, is used to derive an expected result (basically the number of points per game one would expect a team to make were an infinite series of matches to be played, with a win scoring one point and a draw scoring one half).  One can therefore identify them matches where teams have lost games from which they were most expected to profit.  The top 6 unexpected results, and the expected returns of the favourites, are as follows (winners underlined):

1. 0.96    Jan 2022 New Zealand Bangladesh 
2. 0.93    Feb 1951 Australia England 
3. 0.93    Sep 2013 Zimbabwe Pakistan
4. 0.93    Dec 1952 Australia South Africa 
5. 0.92    Feb 1990 West Indies England 
6. 0.92    Jul 2009 West Indies Bangladesh
   

So the list comprises three unexepected victories by test match "minnows", and three defeats for previously great sides (heralding, in fact, following periods of relative decline).  But New Zealand have been so good recently, and Bangladesh so relatively poor, that this new result tops the list by a considerable margin.

For England, though, the Ashes have ended in disaster: one game in five was drawn, not lost, with England surviving with one wicket intact after rain had taken time out of the game.  But a failure to reach a collective total of 300 even once in 5 innings is a worrying sign for the future health of the English game.  My ratings now look like this:

1. India         229  -56
2. Australia     212   -1 
   
3. New Zealand   210  -38
4. South Africa  146  +57
   
5. Pakistan      131 
6. England       105   +1
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -110  +39    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

I'll post an update to the official ratings when one becomes available.  Next month, South Africa visit New Zealand while Sri Lanka play in India.

Cricket World Ratings 30th December 2021

England are currently in free-fall, three-nil down after three tests of their five match series in Australia.  India, meanwhile, have proven it is possible to win away from home, defeating South Africa in the first test of their three match series.  My world ratings nwo look like this:

1. India         285 +15  
   
2. New Zealand   248 
   
3. Australia     213  +9
4. Pakistan      131 
5. England       104 -10
6. South Africa   89 -15  
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -149    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339  

In addition to the continuation of the two current series, Bangladesh will travel to New Zealand for a one-off match in the new year.

Cricket World Ratings 20th December 2021

England have had a tough year, playing India away then at home, New Zealand at home, and now Australia away.  Those countries are arguably the three best teams in the world right now; one thing this schedule has clearly demonstrated is that England just aren't as good, and they've been racking up lots of defeats.  In their latest series, they're now 2-0 down with three to play, needing to win the series to regain the Ashes.  It would take a brave man to bet on this happening.  My world ratings now look like this:

1. India         270  
   
2. New Zealand   248 
   
3. Australia     202  +12
4. Pakistan      131 
5. England       114  -12
6. South Africa  104  
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -149    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339  

And based on their showing so far, England will fear there are more defeats to come.