Cricket World Ratings 21st February 2022

 

South Africa recently won at home against mighty India, while New Zealand lost a shock game to Bangladesh.  But in New Zealand to play two matches, South Africa have just been mightily thrashed in the first game.  In my ratings, New Zealand overtake Australia, while South Africa's margin over England is reduced:

1. India         229 
2. New Zealand   221  +11
3. Australia     212 
4. South Africa  134  -12
   
5. Pakistan      131 
6. England       105   
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -110      
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

There's another game to come in this series, then three new series start in early March: Sri Lanka go to India, Australia go to Pakistan, and England travel to the West Indies.

Cricket World Ratings 16th January 2021

There have been some interesting cricket matches played recently.  India won their first game on tour in South Africa, reaching a rating of 285 in my system, but lost the two subsequent tests in a closely-fought series.  Bangldesh drew a series in New Zealand.  Their win in the first test has been claimed as the most unexpected result in the history of test mach cricket, and my own data supports this.  In my rating system, the difference in ratings between two teams, adjusted by a factor for home advantage, is used to derive an expected result (basically the number of points per game one would expect a team to make were an infinite series of matches to be played, with a win scoring one point and a draw scoring one half).  One can therefore identify them matches where teams have lost games from which they were most expected to profit.  The top 6 unexpected results, and the expected returns of the favourites, are as follows (winners underlined):

1. 0.96    Jan 2022 New Zealand Bangladesh 
2. 0.93    Feb 1951 Australia England 
3. 0.93    Sep 2013 Zimbabwe Pakistan
4. 0.93    Dec 1952 Australia South Africa 
5. 0.92    Feb 1990 West Indies England 
6. 0.92    Jul 2009 West Indies Bangladesh
   

So the list comprises three unexepected victories by test match "minnows", and three defeats for previously great sides (heralding, in fact, following periods of relative decline).  But New Zealand have been so good recently, and Bangladesh so relatively poor, that this new result tops the list by a considerable margin.

For England, though, the Ashes have ended in disaster: one game in five was drawn, not lost, with England surviving with one wicket intact after rain had taken time out of the game.  But a failure to reach a collective total of 300 even once in 5 innings is a worrying sign for the future health of the English game.  My ratings now look like this:

1. India         229  -56
2. Australia     212   -1 
   
3. New Zealand   210  -38
4. South Africa  146  +57
   
5. Pakistan      131 
6. England       105   +1
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -110  +39    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339 
    

I'll post an update to the official ratings when one becomes available.  Next month, South Africa visit New Zealand while Sri Lanka play in India.

Cricket World Ratings 30th December 2021

England are currently in free-fall, three-nil down after three tests of their five match series in Australia.  India, meanwhile, have proven it is possible to win away from home, defeating South Africa in the first test of their three match series.  My world ratings nwo look like this:

1. India         285 +15  
   
2. New Zealand   248 
   
3. Australia     213  +9
4. Pakistan      131 
5. England       104 -10
6. South Africa   89 -15  
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -149    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339  

In addition to the continuation of the two current series, Bangladesh will travel to New Zealand for a one-off match in the new year.

Cricket World Ratings 20th December 2021

England have had a tough year, playing India away then at home, New Zealand at home, and now Australia away.  Those countries are arguably the three best teams in the world right now; one thing this schedule has clearly demonstrated is that England just aren't as good, and they've been racking up lots of defeats.  In their latest series, they're now 2-0 down with three to play, needing to win the series to regain the Ashes.  It would take a brave man to bet on this happening.  My world ratings now look like this:

1. India         270  
   
2. New Zealand   248 
   
3. Australia     202  +12
4. Pakistan      131 
5. England       114  -12
6. South Africa  104  
   
7. Sri Lanka      45 
8. West Indies   -45   
   
9. Bangladesh   -149    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
    
12. Ireland      -339  

And based on their showing so far, England will fear there are more defeats to come.

Cricket World Ratings 11th December 2021

The summer cricket season ended suddenly, with India withdrawing from their last scheduled game against England, due to COVID threat.  But after an interval, there's been quite a lot of test cricket in the last few weeks.  Sri Lanka won both games in a two-match home series against the West Indies; New Zealand drew, then lost, on tour in India; Pakistan won a couple of games in Bangladesh; and Australia begun their home defence of the ashes with a win.  The effect on my world ratings is as follows:

1. India         270  +10
   
2. New Zealand   248  -12
   
3. Australia     190  +13
   
4. Pakistan      131  +19
5. England       126  -14
   
6. South Africa  104  
   
7. Sri Lanka      45  +25
8. West Indies   -45  -25 
   
9. Bangladesh   -149    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303  -20
    
12. Ireland      -339   -1
    

So India regain top place, and a misfiring England drop below Pakistan.  The official ratings currently look like this:

1. India         124 +5
2. New Zealand   121 -5
   
3. Australia     108
4. England       107 
5. Pakistan       93 +1
   
6. South Africa   88 
7. Sri Lanka      83 +5
   
8. West Indies    75 -5
9. Bangladesh     47 -2 
   
10. Zimbabwe       31  

So they also show India back in the lead, although as yet England still feature in a relatively strong fourth. Otherwise, the orders are in agreement.  England now have four more games to redeem themselves against the Aussies; India have a potentially testing tour to South Africa starting later in the month.

Cricket World Ratings 7th September 2021

The England-India series currently underway is proving to be an exciting one; but India seem to have more strength in depth, and resillience, than their hosts. England won the third test; but India had the better of the first (drawn) match, and have now twice one games by skittling England on the final day.  My cricket world ratings now look like this:

1. New Zealand   260  
2. India         258 +21
   
3. Australia     177 
4. England       140 -21
5. Pakistan      112    
6. South Africa  104  
   
7. Sri Lanka      20
8. West Indies   -20  
   
9. Bangladesh   -129    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
12. Ireland      -338

The final match of a compressed series starts on Friday.

Cricket World Ratings 28th August 2021

Before today, England had lost four of their last five games against India, and would probably have lost the other one as well if not for bad weather.  But an Indian first innings collapse at Headingly, and yet more runs for Joe Root, have levelled the current series with two still to play.  My world ratings are affected as follows:

1. New Zealand   260  
2. India         237 -25
   
3. Australia     177 
4. England       161 +25
5. Pakistan      112    
6. South Africa  104  
   
7. Sri Lanka      20
8. West Indies   -20  
   
9. Bangladesh   -129    
   
10. Zimbabwe     -280    
    
11. Afghanistan  -303 
12. Ireland      -338

India lose their recently acquired top place; while England regain some of the ground lost from their recent poor results (in early February they had 226 points and briefly held first place).