Cricket World Ratings 29th January 2021

South Africa made a good start to their first test in Pakistan; however, the hosts rallied and in the end won fairly easily.  In my cricket world ratings have adjusted as follows, with the two sides remaining close but having swapped places:

1. India         254   
   
2. New Zealand   208    
3. England       196 
   
4. Australia     177 
5. Pakistan       93 +17
6. South Africa   75 -17  
7. Sri Lanka      16   
   
8. West Indies    -4    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -33

They play a second test next week while West Indies begin a two match series in Bangladesh.

Cricket World Ratings 25th January 2021

England have just completed a 2-0 away win in Sri Lanka, winning from the front in the first test, and from behind in the second.  Sri Lanka's fragile batting undermined them in both matches; England's spin attack, limited in theory, turned out to be good enough, although tougher challenges await in India. My world ratings now look like this:

1. India         254   
   
2. New Zealand   208    
3. England       196 +16  
   
4. Australia     177   
   
5. South Africa   92    
6. Pakistan       76    
7. Sri Lanka      16 -16  
   
8. West Indies    -4    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -339

And the official ratings are not so disimilar, although there are some differences, most notably at the very top.

1. New Zealand   118 
2. India         118 
3. Australia     113
4. England       108 +2    
5. South Africa   96
6. Sri Lanka      83 -3 
7. Pakistan       82
8. West Indies    77 
9. Bangladesh     55 

Tomorrow sees the start of South Africa's two match series against Pakistan. Next month, England's trip to India begins, while the West Indies visit Bangladesh.

 

Cricket World Ratings 19th January 2020

 

Most test matches end in home wins; but England have just won in Sri Lanka, and India in Australia.  The latter victory is the more remarkable, as it gives India a series victory, even though they lost the first game after being bowled out for just 36, and subsequently they played the remaining three games with a seriously depleted side.  These results have affected my world rankings as follows:

1. India         254 +24  
   
2. New Zealand   208    
3. England       180 +19  
   
4. Australia     177 -25  
   
5. South Africa   92    
6. Pakistan       76    
7. Sri Lanka      32 -19  
   
8. West Indies    -4    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -339

 So India have opened up a clear advantage, and Australia and England are now just about level.

 In the official ratings, which don't yet include England's game, India climb above Australia, but New Zealand maintain their recently acquired position on top of the world:

1. New Zealand   118 
2. India         118 +4
3. Australia     113 -3
4. England       106    
5. South Africa   96
6. Sri Lanka      86 
7. Pakistan       82
8. West Indies    77 
9. Bangladesh     55 

Next up, Sri Lanka resume against England, while South Africa begin a potentially very challenging tour of Pakistan.

Cricket World Ratings 11th January 2021

 The latest round of test cricket saw New Zealand complete a 2-0 defeat of Pakistan; South Africa similarly dispatch Sri Lanka; but India, after losing their first test in humiliating fashion on their four match tour of Australia, have now won the second and held on for a draw in the third. My cricket world ratings now look like this:

1. India        230  +4  
   
2. New Zealand  208  +9  
   
3. Australia    202  -4 
   
4. England      161    
5. South Africa  92 +15  
   
6. Pakistan      76  -9  
   
7. Sri Lanka     51 -15
   
8. West Indies   -4    
9. Bangladesh  -122    
10. Zimbabwe    -251    
11. Afghanistan -303    
12. Ireland     -339
    

And the official world ratings (which don't yet include results from the series in Australia) are as follows:

1. New Zealand   118 +2
   
2. Australia     116 
3. India         114
4. England       106    
5. South Africa   96 +6
6. Sri Lanka      86 -5
7. Pakistan       82 -3
   
8. West Indies    77 
9. Bangladesh     55 

This the the first time New Zealand have ever held the number one spot.  They're close in my ratings too, although there's no result in the remaining game in Australia, starting later this week, that couldleave them on top.  Meanwhile, Sri Lanka have returned home and their first test against England will also start in a couple of days.

Cricket World Ratings 30th December 2020

As a year of COVID-induced disruption comes to an end, three series of test cricket are actually being played at the moment.  South Africa and New Zealand have each started their latest home series (against Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively) with a victory; but Australia, who took a 1-0 lead against India after their visitors suffered a catastrophic first innings collapse, have lost the second test, reigniting interest in the series (arguably a series between the world's two best teams at present) as a whole.  My world ratings now look like this:

India         226 +20
Australia     206 -19

New Zealand   199 +11     

England       161

Pakistan       85 -11 

South Africa   77 +19 

Sri Lanka      66 -18

West Indies    -4  

Bangladesh   -122   

Zimbabwe     -251     

Afghanistan  -303    

Ireland      -339

So India replace Australia in the number one spot, and South Africa and Sri Lanka also swap places.  Interesting as well is New Zealand's strong position.  New Zealand have never been number one in my rankings, nor in the official rankings, but having beaten India and the West Indies in successive home series prior to their latest win, they're getting very close.  All three series resume in the new year.

Cricket World Ratings 19th December 2020

COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc with the international cricket calendar; a recent England tour of South Africa was called out after several players tested positive.  In the Antipodes, the disease thankfully appears reasonably under control; and the West Indies recently toured New Zealand, recording two heavy defeats for their trouble.  India, now in Australia, started their first test rather better; but a spectacular collapse handed victory to the hosts.  Which serves to reinforce Australia's current status as the number one team in my world ratings, increasing their margin over their visitors, still their closest challengers.  The current ratings now look like this:

Australia     235 +15

India         196 -16

New Zealand   188 +13     

England       161

Pakistan       96 

Sri Lanka      84

South Africa   59

West Indies    -4 -13 

Bangladesh   -122   

Zimbabwe     -251     

Afghanistan  -303    

Ireland      -339

The official ratings (which won't incorporate results from the series in Australia until its completion) are similar, but they do show New Zealand in a very strong position (and New Zealand have never been top before, but they're very close to assuming that position, although I don't know if any result from the Australian-Indian series would put them there). The offical ratings also undergo periodic updating based on the passage of time (and not just matches), so they show some adjustments even for teams that have not played recently:

Australia     116 

New Zealand   116 +1

India         114 +4

England       106 +1   

Sri Lanka      91

South Africa   90 -8 

Pakistan       85 -1

West Indies    77 -5

Bangladesh     55 -6

Zimbabwe       18

In theory there's a lot of cricket due in the next month:three more tests for India in Australia, Pakistan go to New Zealand, while Sri Lanka go to South Africa then return home to host England.

Cricket World Ratings 1st September 2020

 England are generally considered a stronger team than either West Indies or Pakistan.  Moreover, home advantage is a big thing in test match cricket.  So that leads to an interesting question.  What level of performance, in England's two home series this summer, would England have needed to deliver to justify their a priori assumption of superiority?  Well, that depends on just how superior you had considered them to be.  My cricket world ratings, working on the Elo principle, make probabilistic predications for each match based on the teams' previous rankings; then adjust the rankings in proportion to the extent that the observed result was considered unlikely.  The predications also take who is playing at home into account.  And, broadly speaking, to retain their ranking over the course of the summer, England needed to win four out of six tests, while losing only one.  They came quite close, but bad weather washed out much of the last two tests of the summer.  And with 2-1 and 1-0 wins from their two series, England's end of summer ranking is actually down, in spite of a pair of series victories.

  My current world rankings look like this:

1. Australia     220    
2. India         212    
   
3. New Zealand   175  
4. England       161 -11
5. Pakistan       96 +11
6. Sri Lanka      84    
7. South Africa   59    
8. West Indies     9    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -339

And England finish still someway clear of Pakistan, but rather less close than they started out after two successive draws.

Meanwhile, the latest ICC ratings look like this:

Australia     116 
New Zealand   115
India         110
England       106 +2
Sri Lanka      91
South Africa   90
Pakistan       86 -1
West Indies    82 
Bangladesh     55
Zimbabwe       18

The official ratings are somewhat Elo-like, but give special credit for winning series, and this is England's first series victory over Pakistan since 2010 (you may remember that at the end of 2016, England had beaten every country more recently than they'd lost to them except for Pakistan).

Next up: if COVID-19 allows, Afghanistan will get to take on Australia in a real battle of minnows v giants, but not until November.