Sri Lanka have just completed a 2-0 victory at home to South Africa; the latter are a strong side, but it seem it's really hard for teams not from south Asia to win there, and this result continues the pattern. My world ratings now look like this:
India 236
South Africa 179 -23
Australia 166
New Zealand 144
Sri Lanka 125 +23
England 74
Pakistan 40
West Indies 15
Bangladesh -99
Zimbabwe -260
Ireland -295
Afghanistan -325
The official version looks like this:
India 125
South Africa 106 -6
Australia 106
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 97 +6
Pakistan 88
West Indies 77
Bangladesh 67
Zimbabwe 2
The next series will be interesting: can a strong Indian side repeat its mostly home success, away in England? There's a full five test series for them, and us, to find out, starting on the 1st August.
Tuesday, 24 July 2018
Tuesday, 17 July 2018
Cricket World Ratings 17th July 2018
3 test matches have been played recently, and all have ended in comprehensive victories for the home teams, even though in theory the games might have been expected to be close. West Indies have beaten Bangladesh twice; a strong South African team has nonetheless lost its first game in Sri Lanka (there's one more match scheduled in this series). The latest version of my cricket world ratings are as follows:
India 236
South Africa 202 -25
Australia 166
New Zealand 144
Sri Lanka 102 +25
England 74
Pakistan 40
West Indies 15 +26
Bangladesh -99 -26
Zimbabwe -260
Ireland -295
Afghanistan -325
Technically, this is Sri Lanka's highest ever rating; though as discussed previously, that has a lot to do with the fact that the rating is zeroed on the average test team, and two new (and presumed poor) sides have recently been given test status. Still, it's a strong 5th place for a side usually found towards the back of the pack.
The official version looks like this:
India 125
South Africa 112
Australia 106
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 91
Pakistan 88
West Indies 77 +5
Bangladesh 67 -8
Zimbabwe 2
The West Indies have swapped places with Bangladesh following their series victory.
Once South Africa go home, the Indians will tour England; then that's it for test cricket until November.
India 236
South Africa 202 -25
Australia 166
New Zealand 144
Sri Lanka 102 +25
England 74
Pakistan 40
West Indies 15 +26
Bangladesh -99 -26
Zimbabwe -260
Ireland -295
Afghanistan -325
Technically, this is Sri Lanka's highest ever rating; though as discussed previously, that has a lot to do with the fact that the rating is zeroed on the average test team, and two new (and presumed poor) sides have recently been given test status. Still, it's a strong 5th place for a side usually found towards the back of the pack.
The official version looks like this:
India 125
South Africa 112
Australia 106
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 91
Pakistan 88
West Indies 77 +5
Bangladesh 67 -8
Zimbabwe 2
The West Indies have swapped places with Bangladesh following their series victory.
Once South Africa go home, the Indians will tour England; then that's it for test cricket until November.
Thursday, 28 June 2018
Cricket World Ratings 28th June 2018
The once mighty West Indies have been in a bad way for some years now, but had seemed on the verge of a rare series win in their tour of Sri Lanka: they'd won the first test, drawn the second and took a good first innings lead in the third. But a second innings batting collapse was to deny them, and Sri Lanka have drawn the series to stay above England in the world ratings.The two teams now move onto their next series: West Indies entertain Bangldesh, while Sri Lanka need to host the South Africans.
India 236
South Africa 227
Australia 166
New Zealand 144
Sri Lanka 77 +14
England 74
Pakistan 40
West Indies -11 +14
Bangladesh -73
Zimbabwe -260
Ireland -295
Afghanistan -325
In the official ratings, update only with the series' end, West Indies have benefitted from the drawn overall, and Sri Lanka have suffered a bit. In this list, Sri Lanka remain behind England; but the West Indies continue to trail Bangladesh, though they have a chance to change this in their forthcoming matches. Test cricket's recent debutants, Ireland and Afghanistan, haven't yet played enoigh cricket to get an official rating.
India 125
South Africa 112
Australia 106
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 91 -3
Pakistan 88
Bangladesh 75
West Indies 72 +5
Zimbabwe 2
India 236
South Africa 227
Australia 166
New Zealand 144
Sri Lanka 77 +14
England 74
Pakistan 40
West Indies -11 +14
Bangladesh -73
Zimbabwe -260
Ireland -295
Afghanistan -325
In the official ratings, update only with the series' end, West Indies have benefitted from the drawn overall, and Sri Lanka have suffered a bit. In this list, Sri Lanka remain behind England; but the West Indies continue to trail Bangladesh, though they have a chance to change this in their forthcoming matches. Test cricket's recent debutants, Ireland and Afghanistan, haven't yet played enoigh cricket to get an official rating.
India 125
South Africa 112
Australia 106
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 91 -3
Pakistan 88
Bangladesh 75
West Indies 72 +5
Zimbabwe 2
Tuesday, 19 June 2018
Cricket World Ratings 20th June 2018
England won their second test against Pakistan. It's a much needed win after a terrible run, but Pakistan have now drawn their last two series in England. England have been much less competitive in Pakistan's adopted home of the United Arab Emirates (where they play due to security concerns in their real homeland), where the team have been regularly well beaten.
Meanwhile, the West Indies won their first game in Sri Lanka, and drew their second; and Afghanistan have been admitted to test cricket, playing (and losing) their first match against India. As I discussed in my last post, when Ireland were admitted, my ratings measure each team's superiority (or otherwise) to an average test team, and newcomers are assumed to rate at the bottom; so these two new admissions have sent everybody else's score upwards, which is not ideal, but there's no absolute scale to measure cricketing achievement: you have to zero the ratings somewhere.
So the current charts are as follows:
India 236 +30
South Africa 227 +30
Australia 166 +29
New Zealand 144 +29
England 74 +47
Sri Lanka 63 +2
Pakistan 40 +12
West Indies 3 +57
Bangladesh -73 +40
Zimbabwe -260 +29
Ireland -295 +30
Afghanistan -325
The official ratings don't include unfinished series (Sri Lanka and West Indies still have a game to play); don't yet include the two new nations; and undergo an annual revision which introduces some discontinuities; so there are some differences, although the top seven teams are the same in both cases. It's notable that in the official lists, Bangladesh, who've had a scattering of decent results in the last couple of years, now rate quite clearly above the once mighty West Indies:
India 125 +4
South Africa 112 -5
Australia 106 +4
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 94 -1
Pakistan 88
Bangladesh 75 +4
West Indies 67 -5
Zimbabwe 2 +1
Meanwhile, the West Indies won their first game in Sri Lanka, and drew their second; and Afghanistan have been admitted to test cricket, playing (and losing) their first match against India. As I discussed in my last post, when Ireland were admitted, my ratings measure each team's superiority (or otherwise) to an average test team, and newcomers are assumed to rate at the bottom; so these two new admissions have sent everybody else's score upwards, which is not ideal, but there's no absolute scale to measure cricketing achievement: you have to zero the ratings somewhere.
So the current charts are as follows:
India 236 +30
South Africa 227 +30
Australia 166 +29
New Zealand 144 +29
England 74 +47
Sri Lanka 63 +2
Pakistan 40 +12
West Indies 3 +57
Bangladesh -73 +40
Zimbabwe -260 +29
Ireland -295 +30
Afghanistan -325
The official ratings don't include unfinished series (Sri Lanka and West Indies still have a game to play); don't yet include the two new nations; and undergo an annual revision which introduces some discontinuities; so there are some differences, although the top seven teams are the same in both cases. It's notable that in the official lists, Bangladesh, who've had a scattering of decent results in the last couple of years, now rate quite clearly above the once mighty West Indies:
India 125 +4
South Africa 112 -5
Australia 106 +4
New Zealand 102
England 97
Sri Lanka 94 -1
Pakistan 88
Bangladesh 75 +4
West Indies 67 -5
Zimbabwe 2 +1
Monday, 28 May 2018
Cricket World Ratings 28th May 2018
Under two years ago, England and Pakistan were among the teams fighting it out for the title of best in the world, since when, they've both had a pretty torrid time. Now Pakistan return to England, and, in spite of the disadvantage of having to play under English conditions in May, they've won the first test clearly. England seem in disarry, unable to find players with confidence or ability.
In spite of this, England's nominal ranking in my ratings system is improved - because of another match that Pakistan have played, a game in which they beat Ireland. This was Ireland's first ever test match. My ratings system (i) measures differences in performance between teams, not absolute performance (ii) is arbitrarily zeroed on the mean of all teams and (iii) enters a new team in the system at the previously lowest rating, then adjusting the ratings of all existing teams to keep the zero point. It's not a bad metric, but the addition of a new side gives everyone else an immediate boost in nominal score. The point to remember is that the difference in rating between two sides is what is designed to indicate the win probability - so if the gap is 100, that's the same whether or not we're talking about 200-100 or 125-25. But the change has had the slightly odd effect of giving Bangladesh, for example, their highest ever rating under the system.
So the current ratings are as follows: England will be very keen to arrest their downward slide, but it's hard to see too many signs of hope.
India 206 +32
South Africa 197 +32
Australia 137 +32
New Zealand 115 +32
Sri Lanka 61 +32
Pakistan 28 +55
England 27 +12
West Indies -54 +32
Bangladesh -103 +32
Zimbabwe -289 +33
Ireland -325
In spite of this, England's nominal ranking in my ratings system is improved - because of another match that Pakistan have played, a game in which they beat Ireland. This was Ireland's first ever test match. My ratings system (i) measures differences in performance between teams, not absolute performance (ii) is arbitrarily zeroed on the mean of all teams and (iii) enters a new team in the system at the previously lowest rating, then adjusting the ratings of all existing teams to keep the zero point. It's not a bad metric, but the addition of a new side gives everyone else an immediate boost in nominal score. The point to remember is that the difference in rating between two sides is what is designed to indicate the win probability - so if the gap is 100, that's the same whether or not we're talking about 200-100 or 125-25. But the change has had the slightly odd effect of giving Bangladesh, for example, their highest ever rating under the system.
So the current ratings are as follows: England will be very keen to arrest their downward slide, but it's hard to see too many signs of hope.
India 206 +32
South Africa 197 +32
Australia 137 +32
New Zealand 115 +32
Sri Lanka 61 +32
Pakistan 28 +55
England 27 +12
West Indies -54 +32
Bangladesh -103 +32
Zimbabwe -289 +33
Ireland -325
Sunday, 8 April 2018
Cricket World Ratings 8th April 2018
A long, horrible winter is finally over for England. Having been beaten in their first match against New Zealand, they got the better of their second game, but couldn't win. It's a disappointing end to a second disappointing winter in succession. Before heading to New Zealand, of course, the team were thrashed by Australia; but Australia also have also just finished a disappointing tour, losing three on the trot to South Africa (and losing their captain and coach to boot after a ball tampering scandal.
So India remain on top of my version of the world ratings:
India 174
South Africa 165 +15
Australia 105 -15
New Zealand 82 -5
Sri Lanka 29
England 15 +5
Pakistan -27
West Indies -86
Bangladesh -135
Zimbabwe -322
And the offical ratings don't look so different, alhough it's notable just how high New Zealand are rated:
India 121
South Africa 117 +2
New Zealand 102 +2
Australia 102 -2
England 97 -2
Sri Lanka 95
Pakistan 88
West Indies 72
Bangladesh 71
Zimbabwe 1
The next text will be Ireland's first ever test match: they'll play Pakistan, before the latter team play two matches in England.
So India remain on top of my version of the world ratings:
India 174
South Africa 165 +15
Australia 105 -15
New Zealand 82 -5
Sri Lanka 29
England 15 +5
Pakistan -27
West Indies -86
Bangladesh -135
Zimbabwe -322
And the offical ratings don't look so different, alhough it's notable just how high New Zealand are rated:
India 121
South Africa 117 +2
New Zealand 102 +2
Australia 102 -2
England 97 -2
Sri Lanka 95
Pakistan 88
West Indies 72
Bangladesh 71
Zimbabwe 1
The next text will be Ireland's first ever test match: they'll play Pakistan, before the latter team play two matches in England.
Wednesday, 28 March 2018
Cricket World Ratings 28th March 2018
It's been a hard winter for England. Already well beaten by Australia in their quest to retain the Ashes, the team are now in New Zealand, where they've just lost the first test after being bowled out for a mere 58 runs in their first innings. A great result for the hosts, and an embarassing one for their visitors, who might need to ask some tough questions of themselves when they return to home soil.
As for Australia, a win in their first test in South Africa put them on course to potentially displace India at the top of my world rankings. Two succesive defeats have put paid to that, and the second of these was particularly controversial, as they were caught in an act of pre-meditated cheating, using sandpaper to damage the condition of the ball. Some old professionals believe this to be a storm in a teacup - all teams quietly manipulate the ball when they can, but to smuggle material onto the field for this express purpose crosses a line that has left many shocked. It's hard to defend, and three players, including both captain (the brilliant Steve Smith) and vice-captain have been sent home. With the side in disarray, it's hard to bet against the South Africans completing a series win in the final test.
So the world rankings currently look like this:
India 174
South Africa 150 +17
Australia 120 -17
New Zealand 87 +14
Sri Lanka 29
England 10 -14
Pakistan -27
West Indies -86
Bangladesh -135
Zimbabwe -322
And it's worth noting the South Africans have already beaten India this winter; a victory over Australia as well (albeit that both series are at home) will have made it a very succesful winter from their point of view.
As for Australia, a win in their first test in South Africa put them on course to potentially displace India at the top of my world rankings. Two succesive defeats have put paid to that, and the second of these was particularly controversial, as they were caught in an act of pre-meditated cheating, using sandpaper to damage the condition of the ball. Some old professionals believe this to be a storm in a teacup - all teams quietly manipulate the ball when they can, but to smuggle material onto the field for this express purpose crosses a line that has left many shocked. It's hard to defend, and three players, including both captain (the brilliant Steve Smith) and vice-captain have been sent home. With the side in disarray, it's hard to bet against the South Africans completing a series win in the final test.
So the world rankings currently look like this:
India 174
South Africa 150 +17
Australia 120 -17
New Zealand 87 +14
Sri Lanka 29
England 10 -14
Pakistan -27
West Indies -86
Bangladesh -135
Zimbabwe -322
And it's worth noting the South Africans have already beaten India this winter; a victory over Australia as well (albeit that both series are at home) will have made it a very succesful winter from their point of view.
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