Cricket World Ratings 2th February 2017

This winter has told a story of Indian ascendency.  With a string of home games giving them an advantage, the Indians have built up a position as the world's number one team, most notably by beating England in 4 consecutive games.  At the end of the English summer, several sides, inclduing not only England but also Pakistan and Australia were in contention for this title.  6 months or so later, India appear dominant.  The Australians have done well in their last few matches, but were damaged by a catastrophe in Sri Lanka and a poor start at home against Aouth Africa.  Thrashing Paskistan has lifted them back in the ratings, but few would have expected them to sustain this during their visit to India.  But in the most surprising result in recent months, the team has not only won their first test, but have slaughtered the home side, dismissing them twice for barely more than 100 runs.  Spinner O'Keefe was their hero, with 12 wickets in the match.  England, who barely looked capable to taking a single Indian wicket at times, must be looking on in envy.

Now, one match doesn't completely change the world ratings, but it does narrow the gap, and give Australia hope of taking the number one spot for themselves if they can secure a famous series win.  There's still a lot of work to do before that can happen; but suddenly, India don't look quite so invincible any more. The current ratings are listed below

India         165 -21
Australia     141 +20  
South Africa  140    
New Zealand    55    
England        25    
Sri Lanka      18    
Pakistan        2    
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -164   
Zimbabwe     -325

Cricket World Ratings 13th February 2017

Some matches are predictable.  Had Bangldesh managed to beat India, in the only test the two nations were scheduled to play, the result would have been a major shock. India's comfortable 200-run win is barely news, and has little effect on the world ratings, which are essentially unchanged:

India         186 +3
South Africa  140    
Australia     121   
New Zealand    55   
England        25    
Sri Lanka      18    
Pakistan        2    
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -164 -2 
Zimbabwe     -325

The official ratings are similarly hardly touched, although notice the non-reciprocality, due to the complex rules that apply when there's a big gap between the ratings of two teams:

India        120 +1
Australia    109
South Africa 107
England      101
New Zealand   98
Pakistan      97
Sri Lanka     92
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    62 -3
Zimbabwe       5 


India's rating is now the highest it has ever been under my system, but a bigger challenge awaits them before the month is out: Australia will come to the subcontinent.  But given the hard time the antipodean team had in Sri Lanka last year, it will be a real surprise if they manage to take the shine off India's recent impressive run. 

Cricket World Ratings 23rd January 2017

New Zealand have just won their second test against Bangldesh, with a small effect on the ratings as follows:

India         183    
South Africa  140    
Australia     121    
New Zealand    55 +7
England        25    
Sri Lanka      18    
Pakistan        2    
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -162 -7  
Zimbabwe     -325

And in the official ratings, the effect is similar:

India        120
Australia    109
South Africa 107
England      101
New Zealand   98 +2
Pakistan      97
Sri Lanka     92
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65 -3
Zimbabwe       5 

Next up, Bangldesh face a near impossible challenge when they play a single test in India in early February.

Cricket World Ratings 19th January 2017

Two more results with which to update my cricket world ratings: another win for South Africa over Sri Lanka (making their record 3/3 in the current series), and a victory for New Zealand over Bangladesh.   Neither reuslt is surprising, and in consequenc, the latest ratings now look as follows:

India         183    
South Africa  140 +11  
Australia     121    
New Zealand    48 +7   
England        25    
Sri Lanka      18 -12 
Pakistan        2    
West Indies   -58   
Bangladesh   -155  -7  
Zimbabwe     -325

The result in South Africa has completed that series, which now shows up  in the officla ratings too:

India        120
Australia    109
South Africa 107 +5
England      101
Pakistan      97
New Zealand   96
Sri Lanka     92 -4
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65
Zimbabwe       5 

The main difference being the relatively low status of Pakistan in my list.

Next matches: Bangladesh, who beat England in one game (at home) this winter, play one more match in New Zealand, and then face a near-impossible challenge (according to the statistics) in a single match in India.

Cricket World Ratings 7th January 2017

 Recent test matches have brought success for three home sides: India against England, Australia against Sri Lanka, and South Africa against Pakistan.  Collectively, the home teams are winning by the the score of 9-0, with one draw, confirming the general trend for Asian sides to be strong at home, and weak away.  Interestingly, the effect this has had on my rating system for cricket sides has been to life New Zealand (narrowly) to fourth place; it's also notable that the gap between Pakistan and the West Indies looks smaller than it has done for quite a while.  Meanwhile, India rank top, and with quite a good margin, while Australia have quickly bounced back from a brief, disastrous run of five consecutive defeats.

India         183    
South Africa  129 +13  
Australia     121 +14  
New Zealand    41    
Sri Lanka      30 -12   
England        25    
Pakistan        2 -11 
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -148   
Zimbabwe     -325

The offical ratings, meanwhile, tell a similar (but not identical) story:

India        120
Australia    109 +4
South Africa 102
England      101
Pakistan      97 -5
New Zealand   96
Sri Lanka     96
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65
Zimbabwe       5 

The next test scheduled is the final game between South Africa and Sri Lanka, which starts next week.

Cricket World Ratings 31st December 2016

The year comes to an end and England are in fre-fall, having lost their lost four tests, and six of their last eight, including a first ever defeat to Bangladesh.  In their subsequent series against India, the difference in class betweeen the two sides was clear: in the finall test, England made 477 in their first innings and started their second innings with a century stand and still lost by an innings, thanks to a triple century from Karun Nair in only his third test match.  The bowling of Ravindra Jadeja was another stand-out feature of the match (and series); for once, India's captain Virat Kohli was not needed to make a major contribtion.

Eleswhere, Australia have begun their home series against Pakistan with two wins, and likewise, South Africa have seen off Sri Lanka, confirming the pattern of the domianance of Asian teams at home and their relative weakness away. So the latest shape of my world ratings is as follows:

India         183  +9  
South Africa  116 +14  
Australia     109 +27 
Sri Lanka      42 -15   
New Zealand    41    
England        25  -9  
Pakistan       13 -28
West Indies   -58   
Bangladesh   -148    
Zimbabwe     -325

And the official ratings (now relecting India's win over England but not yet the other matches looks as follows):

India        120 +5
Australia    105
Pakistan     102
South Africa 102
England      101 -4
New Zealand   96
Sri Lanka     96
West Indies   69
Bangldesh     65
Zimbabwe       5 

A happy new year to all!

Cricket World Ratings 12th December 2016

 So, England, nearly top in the world ratings at the end of the summer, one draw away from having beaten every team in the world (at the series level) more recently than they'd lost to them, and now?  You can see from below that in my world ratings, it doesn't look good.  The official world ratings still flatter them for the moment, but a downward adjustment is coming soon.  A first-ever match loss to Bangladesh has been followed by three straight defeats to India, with just a draw in between.  Now India are a fine (and arguably improving) side, playing at home (although the conditions have been less spin-friendly than they might have been).  A defeat, in itself, is no shame (although obviously not the mark of world beaters).  I'd say just one thing: you don't need six bowlers in a test match.  No matter if you have a stack of fine seamers on turning pitches; no matter if your spinners are potentially unreliable; no matter if you've been struggling to find good batsmen.  It seems to me that England have made their own troubles worse by refusing to pick a conventionally balanced side.  The strategy didn't make sense to me (and didn't avoid defeat) in the U.A.E at the end of 2015; and it doesn't make sense now.  At least the promising performances of Hameed and Jennings hint at how England might fill the gaps in their batting order longer term.  But in this tour, one problem has surely been that they haven't been trying to fill enough gaps.

Meanwhile, hats off to India, who've outbowled and outbatted their visitors, in very convincing fashion, and who've now won six of their last seven tests.  It will now be interesting to see if this talented side can do what so many Indian teams of promise have failed to do in the past, and follow up success at home with similar success away.

India         174 +10 
South Africa  102    
Australia      82    
Sri Lanka      57    
New Zealand    41   
Pakistan       41    
England        34 -10  
West Indies   -58   
Bangladesh   -148    
Zimbabwe     -325