Cricket World Ratings 23rd January 2017

New Zealand have just won their second test against Bangldesh, with a small effect on the ratings as follows:

India         183    
South Africa  140    
Australia     121    
New Zealand    55 +7
England        25    
Sri Lanka      18    
Pakistan        2    
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -162 -7  
Zimbabwe     -325

And in the official ratings, the effect is similar:

India        120
Australia    109
South Africa 107
England      101
New Zealand   98 +2
Pakistan      97
Sri Lanka     92
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65 -3
Zimbabwe       5 

Next up, Bangldesh face a near impossible challenge when they play a single test in India in early February.

Cricket World Ratings 19th January 2017

Two more results with which to update my cricket world ratings: another win for South Africa over Sri Lanka (making their record 3/3 in the current series), and a victory for New Zealand over Bangladesh.   Neither reuslt is surprising, and in consequenc, the latest ratings now look as follows:

India         183    
South Africa  140 +11  
Australia     121    
New Zealand    48 +7   
England        25    
Sri Lanka      18 -12 
Pakistan        2    
West Indies   -58   
Bangladesh   -155  -7  
Zimbabwe     -325

The result in South Africa has completed that series, which now shows up  in the officla ratings too:

India        120
Australia    109
South Africa 107 +5
England      101
Pakistan      97
New Zealand   96
Sri Lanka     92 -4
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65
Zimbabwe       5 

The main difference being the relatively low status of Pakistan in my list.

Next matches: Bangladesh, who beat England in one game (at home) this winter, play one more match in New Zealand, and then face a near-impossible challenge (according to the statistics) in a single match in India.

Cricket World Ratings 7th January 2017

 Recent test matches have brought success for three home sides: India against England, Australia against Sri Lanka, and South Africa against Pakistan.  Collectively, the home teams are winning by the the score of 9-0, with one draw, confirming the general trend for Asian sides to be strong at home, and weak away.  Interestingly, the effect this has had on my rating system for cricket sides has been to life New Zealand (narrowly) to fourth place; it's also notable that the gap between Pakistan and the West Indies looks smaller than it has done for quite a while.  Meanwhile, India rank top, and with quite a good margin, while Australia have quickly bounced back from a brief, disastrous run of five consecutive defeats.

India         183    
South Africa  129 +13  
Australia     121 +14  
New Zealand    41    
Sri Lanka      30 -12   
England        25    
Pakistan        2 -11 
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -148   
Zimbabwe     -325

The offical ratings, meanwhile, tell a similar (but not identical) story:

India        120
Australia    109 +4
South Africa 102
England      101
Pakistan      97 -5
New Zealand   96
Sri Lanka     96
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65
Zimbabwe       5 

The next test scheduled is the final game between South Africa and Sri Lanka, which starts next week.

Cricket World Ratings 31st December 2016

The year comes to an end and England are in fre-fall, having lost their lost four tests, and six of their last eight, including a first ever defeat to Bangladesh.  In their subsequent series against India, the difference in class betweeen the two sides was clear: in the finall test, England made 477 in their first innings and started their second innings with a century stand and still lost by an innings, thanks to a triple century from Karun Nair in only his third test match.  The bowling of Ravindra Jadeja was another stand-out feature of the match (and series); for once, India's captain Virat Kohli was not needed to make a major contribtion.

Eleswhere, Australia have begun their home series against Pakistan with two wins, and likewise, South Africa have seen off Sri Lanka, confirming the pattern of the domianance of Asian teams at home and their relative weakness away. So the latest shape of my world ratings is as follows:

India         183  +9  
South Africa  116 +14  
Australia     109 +27 
Sri Lanka      42 -15   
New Zealand    41    
England        25  -9  
Pakistan       13 -28
West Indies   -58   
Bangladesh   -148    
Zimbabwe     -325

And the official ratings (now relecting India's win over England but not yet the other matches looks as follows):

India        120 +5
Australia    105
Pakistan     102
South Africa 102
England      101 -4
New Zealand   96
Sri Lanka     96
West Indies   69
Bangldesh     65
Zimbabwe       5 

A happy new year to all!

Cricket World Ratings 12th December 2016

 So, England, nearly top in the world ratings at the end of the summer, one draw away from having beaten every team in the world (at the series level) more recently than they'd lost to them, and now?  You can see from below that in my world ratings, it doesn't look good.  The official world ratings still flatter them for the moment, but a downward adjustment is coming soon.  A first-ever match loss to Bangladesh has been followed by three straight defeats to India, with just a draw in between.  Now India are a fine (and arguably improving) side, playing at home (although the conditions have been less spin-friendly than they might have been).  A defeat, in itself, is no shame (although obviously not the mark of world beaters).  I'd say just one thing: you don't need six bowlers in a test match.  No matter if you have a stack of fine seamers on turning pitches; no matter if your spinners are potentially unreliable; no matter if you've been struggling to find good batsmen.  It seems to me that England have made their own troubles worse by refusing to pick a conventionally balanced side.  The strategy didn't make sense to me (and didn't avoid defeat) in the U.A.E at the end of 2015; and it doesn't make sense now.  At least the promising performances of Hameed and Jennings hint at how England might fill the gaps in their batting order longer term.  But in this tour, one problem has surely been that they haven't been trying to fill enough gaps.

Meanwhile, hats off to India, who've outbowled and outbatted their visitors, in very convincing fashion, and who've now won six of their last seven tests.  It will now be interesting to see if this talented side can do what so many Indian teams of promise have failed to do in the past, and follow up success at home with similar success away.

India         174 +10 
South Africa  102    
Australia      82    
Sri Lanka      57    
New Zealand    41   
Pakistan       41    
England        34 -10  
West Indies   -58   
Bangladesh   -148    
Zimbabwe     -325

Cricket World Ratings 3rd December 2016

One match has been played in each of three test series since I last updated the blog.  Australia came back to win the dead rubber in their series against South Africa; New Zealand effected a remarkably rapid dismissal of Pakistan in the final session of the two teams' second game to secure a whitewash; while India completed their second successive defeat of England in a five match series they can now no longer lose (in theory, with two matches still to come, England could escape with a draw, although that would indeed be a rather remarkable case of escapology).  A few months ago, Australia, England and Pakistan were all among the teams vying for the position of the number one in the world; now, India seem to be fairly clearly on top, and remakrably, in my world ranking system, Sri Lanka have risen to fourth place, following their walloping of Australia and the subsequent struggles of many of their rivals. Here are rankings in full:

India         164 +12
South Africa  102 -20   
Australia      82 +21
Sri Lanka      57    
England        44 -12  
New Zealand    41 +19
Pakistan       41 -19
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -148    
Zimbabwe     -325

And here are the offical ICC ratings (which don't yet take account of the India v England series, and which in general are more resillient in the face of recent results:

India        115
England      105
Australia    105 -3
Pakistan     102 -7
South Africa 102 +6
New Zealand   96 +5
Sri Lanka     96
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65
Zimbabwe       5

Nonetheless, it's safe to say it will be a major surprise if England still hold second place after two more tests against India.

Cricket World Ratings 21st November 2016

A lot of cricket has been played in the past few weeks, beginning with a momentous game.  Bangladesh had never previously won a test against opponents more illustrious than the West Indies or Zimbabwe; but on a turning wicket, they only just fell short of England in the first test of the two nation’s two-match series.  Another turner for the second test, and again England, so effective recently on seaming pitches, looked out of their depth as bowlers and players of spin.  This time, Bangladesh were not to be denied; and the team secured a famous win.  Logically, Bangladesh should become a place where cricket can flourish, with a large, and interested, population. This win may perhaps be remembered as an important step on that journey.

England then had to travel to top-ranked India, for an even more demanding challenge.  But they secured the better of a draw in the first test, with big runs for five of their top six batsmen (who had collectively looked out-of-sorts even in the summer in England, and even more so in Bangldesh).  But, admittedly after losing a crucial toss, the home side crushed their visitors in the second game of what will be a five game series.  England may win a game along the way, but, unlike the side that toured India in 2011, this doesn’t look to be a team that can come home with a series win (or even a draw).  India’s status as world number ones looks secure for a while.

Sri Lanka recently provided a shock to the system by delivering a 3-0 walloping to their visitors Australia, who had arrived on tour with the number one rating that now belongs to India; they’ve followed this up with a pair of unsurprising victories over Zimbabwe. Very briefly, in between, Pakistan grabbed the number one spot (there are a lot of teams quite close in terms of ability at the moment).  But after beating the West Indies in the first two matches that the two teams had played, they lost the final game, and have now made a losing start to their tour of New Zealand. So one-by-one, India’s rivals for the top spot appear to be falling away.

Even more strikingly, Australia have started their home series against South Africa with two more crushing defeats, meaning that the team have now been thrashed five matches in succession.  In 1984 the team lost six straight games to the then-mighty West Indies; this time, it’s harder to see an excuse.  Since early last year, a lot of fine players have retired from the Australian team: batsmen Michael Clarke and Chris Rogers, wicket keeper Brad Haddin, all-rounder Shane Watson plus the team’s erratic talisman, pace-man Mitchell Johnson; but new captain Steve Smith took over from Clarke and looked ruthless in defeating New Zealand and the West Indies.  Suddenly, however, the team looks very fragile.  Of course, we’re talking about an awful couple of months, and perhaps Australia will put this run behind them and it will be remembered primarily as a statistical curiosity.  But it’s potentially very bad for morale, and the fear will be that the conveyor of talent, which has run full for Australia for 25 years, might finally be empty. As an Englishman, however, I’m not making that call yet.

 So my method for rating the teams currently assesses them in this order:

India         152  +8  

South Africa  122 +32  

Australia      61 -32  

Pakistan       60 -59   

Sri Lanka      57  +5  

England        56 -38 

New Zealand    22 +22   

West Indies   -58 +37  

Bangladesh   -148 +29 

Zimbabwe     -325  -5

And Bangldesh's first win over a top seven country takes them to their highest ever score.  On the other hand, Zimbabwe's -325 is a record low for any side ever.  The ICC method, which only counts series upon their conclusion, currently rates the sides as follows:

India        115

Pakistan     109  -2

Australia    108

England      105  -3

South Africa  96

Sri Lanka     96  +1

New Zealand   91

West Indies   69  +2

Bangladesh    65  +8

Zimbabwe       5  -3

The normal caveat, that the numbers are not directly comparable, still applies