Cricket World Ratings 28th September 2016

New  Zeland is a small country, and their cricket team is usually dependent, even at its best, on a small number of exceptional players, such as their current leading batsman, Kane Williamson.  India is the most populous cricket-playing country, and their team is currently top of my cricket world rankings (though Pakistan still lead the initial list).  Williamson predictably made some runs in the first test of New Zealand's current tour of India, but equally predictably, it wasn't enough, and a ten-wicket haul for Ashwin helped India to a victory by almost 200 runs.  It's the first of a series of tests that India will play at home this winter: the net result could be that they strengthen their position on top of my ratings, and take the lead in the official rankings too, as neither system makes any allowances for home advantage.  Here's my latest rankings: the second test (of three) begins in a couple of days.

India         122 +12 
Australia      93    
Pakistan       93    
South Africa   90    
England        89    
Sri Lanka      52    
New Zealand    22 -12  
West Indies   -69    
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -320

Cricket World Ratings 5th September 2016

Dale Steyn has been the world's best fast bowler for the past decade.  But recently, injury has interrupted his career, and he's at the age where a fast bowler typically nears the end of his usefulness.  Thus every hiccup might now be seen as a harbinger of the end.  But he may not be finished yet.  After South Africa's first test against New Zealand was rained off, Steyn was instrumental in winning the second for his side, taking 10 wickets in the match.  It's a good win for South Africa as well, following disastrous series in India and at home against England, which saw the team fall precipitously from their previous spot as world number 1.

The effect of this win on my version of cricket's world ratings is to improve South Africa's standing at the expense of England's, although it's all very close:

India         110   
Australia      93    
Pakistan       93   
South Africa   90 +15  
England        89    
Sri Lanka      52    
New Zealand    34 -16  
West Indies   -69   
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -320

By way of comparison, here are the current ICC world ratings following the conclusion of New Zealand's visit to South Africa:

Pakistan      111
India         110
Australia     108
England       108
South Africa   96
Sri Lanka      95
New Zealand    95
West Indies    67
Bangladesh     57
Zimbabwe        8

  
Under the ICC system, New Zealand actually held 5th place before this defeat.  The results bring the ICC system into better concordance with mine, the main difference being the higher ranking that Pakistan claim in the official ratings.  But their hold on first place may not last for long.  Unless New Zealand can defy expectation on their forthcoming tour of India, the home team may well soon be in first place in both sets of ratings.  

Cricket World Ratings 23/8/2016

There’s been a lot of action in international cricket recently: every team with the exception of Bangladesh has been in action, and with the effect of a change in the rating order.  Since I started keeping track of test match cricket results using an Elo-style system, most of the matches played have ended in fairly predictable outcomes, but some of the recent matches have produced some surprises.  The first big shock came in Australia’s tour of Sri Lanka.  After a run of 11 undefeated games helped put Australia into first place both in my rankings and the official world ratings, Sri Lanka won all three tests in their recent contest.  This is all the more remarkable as Sri Lanka have a wretched record against Australia in general – in fact, prior to this series, they’d only won one test against them ever (and they’ve been playing test cricket since 1982).  In the first match, young batsmen Mendis (who was promising in the side’s recent tour of England) and veteran spinner Herath helped deliver a victory as the team recovered from an appalling start.  In the second game, Herath even took a hat-trick, while his colleague Perera collected most wickets overall.  The third test was more competitive but the eventual result less surprising.  Even at their peak, Australia have often looked weak in the Indian subcontinent, but these to lose three times in a row is poor for a side that had been beginning to assert itself at the head of cricket’s pecking order.  And indeed, Australia’s erstwhile dominance was not so strong that it could necessarily be presumed to withstand such results.

And for a while, it wasn’t clear which of three other teams might take Australia’s lead.  India could cement that position with a good win over the West Indies, but (because of the West Indies’ poor rating) needed a convincing set of results.  If England could see off Pakistan, the team would actually have beaten every other test side more recently than they’d lost to them, and would go top.  But a drawn series, or a series win for Pakistan, could have allowed Pakistan to take the top spot if India failed to win by a sufficiently convincing margin.  This whole blog is about my alternative system for ranking teams, and under this system, the calculations are slightly different; but it’s a fairly clear fact that no team is dominant in test match cricket right now, meaning that the top place would be subject to contest under any reasonable system.

And India’s hopes might have seemed to have been fading as their series against the West Indies unfurled.  They’d won the first test, and in the second, wickets from Ashwin (one of a number of contenders for the title of the world’s best bowler right now), and runs for Rahul and Rahane, saw India into a commanding position; but Roston Chase, who’d previously taken five wickets, scored a splendid undefeated century to secure a draw for the home side.  In the third test, the West Indies made a good start, and, although their position weakened, rain looked as if it may have saved them.  In the event, India sealed a win to take a 2-0 series lead, and to retain their own chances of taking the number one spot.  But rain wiped out the final test, restricting India's opportunities to gain in the ratings.

There were no shocks in New Zealand’s tour of Zimbabwe, where the visitors have won the first two tests by a crushing margin (thought this has little effect on the top of the rankings). New Zealand have since headed south to South Africa, where the first test was rained off.  Just one more test awaits in this series. 

England and Pakistan’s battle as arguably been more interesting: the third test saw the hosts recover from a poor start through a fine team effort, but in the fourth, the Pakistanis took control again and England count not return.  England’s eventual defeat saw the series drawn 2-2, and, as Pakistan won when the two teams last met, England’s hopes of a clean sweep of pairwise victories dashed.  England have many talented players (especially all-rounders) but a chronic shortage of frontline batsmen: in the series, five Pakistani specialist batsmen have made scores in excess of 70, whereas just Cook and Root have managed this among England’s supposed lead batsmen.  As spin bowling is another England weakness, and a tour to India awaits, it could be a while before England get another chance to go top.  As for Pakistan, their batting hero of the first test was 42 year-old Misbah ul-Haq, while in the final test, a double century was scored by 38 year-old Younis Khan.  It’s probably the last time we’ll see this pair on a cricket ground in England, but they depart on a high.

One issue which I have not extensively discussed yet on this blog is home advantage.   Has Australia lost to Sri Lanka at home that would have been an even more dramatic shock; Pakistan will be delighted to have drawn in England; India have a long series of home games coming up which represent a good opportunity to assert themselves in first position.  Players tend to develop the skills needed to flourish under the conditions they most often face; the advantage of playing at home is substantial. Though I haven’t done the maths, it’s possible that identifying which side is playing at home is as good an indicator of the eventual result of a game as any complex analysis of prior results. One certainly might seek to build this factor into a system, although neither my system nor the official one takes account of this at present.

So, after all this action, how do the teams rate?  Firstly, under my system, the current ratings are as follows:

India         110  -3      

Australia      93 -73         

Pakistan       93  +2        

England        89  -2         

South Africa   75  -1        

Sri Lanka      52 +73        

New Zealand    50  +7         

West Indies   -69 +15      

Bangladesh   -172      

Zimbabwe     -320  -5

While under the official system, India went top for 5 days, but after their final match against the West Indies was rained off, Pakistan nudged ahead of them:

Pakistan      111

India         110

Australia     108

England       108

New Zealand    99

Sri Lanka      95

South Africa   92

West Indies    67

Bangladesh     57

Zimbabwe        8

So there is actually a difference between the answers produced by the two systems, although both agree that there isn’t much to choose between the top sides.  The similarity of the absolute ratings, however, is wholly accidental, although it’s worth noting that India’s current rating of 110 (in my system) is one of the lowest ratings ever for a team in first place: the last time that the best rating was this low was in 1999, when South Africa and Australia were jousting for the number 1 spot (and when Bangladesh were not yet a test team, which is important, as the ratings are adjusted so that the mean strength is zero).  One way of looking at this is that we’re currently lacking any great test sides.  But another view is that the top rung of international cricket has rarely been this competitive, with very little to choose between the top four teams in particular. Still India, with their forthcoming home series, have to be the favourites to be on top in a few months time.

Cricket World Ratings 26/7/2016

There are three interesting series taking place at the moment.  Most interesting, perhaps, is England's attempt to exploit home advantage and take revenge on Pakistan, who defeated them last winter.  England and Pakistan are clearly two of the world's top five teams right now.  Indeed, after Pakistan won the first test, and England the second, the two have converged on exactly the same ranking.  Both teams have only a few form batsmen: England won the second test after their two stars, Cook and Root, came good, the latter with a double hundred.  England have the better seam attack, but Pakistan's Yasir Shah is clearly the best spinner (indeed, after he took 10 wickets in the first test, he displaced England's Anderson as the world's highest ranked bowler). With two tests still to come, there's still a lot to play for, although right now England look favourites.

The other battles are less interesting.  Australia start their visit to Sri Lanka with a ranking 187 points higher than their hosts; India have a ranking 205 points better than the West Indies.  In each case, the weaker team is at home, but these are big margins.  The nice thing about an Elo-style rating system is that these margins actually mean something, and what a difference of 205 means is an expected value of 0.805 for India per game - or in effect, a prediction of a 4-1 victory in a 5 game series.  India have duly won the first test by a big margin, with Virat Kohli scoring (like Root for England) a double hundred, and wickets for Ravichandran Ashwin (who has therbey successed Yasir at the top of the bowling rankings after only one match).  The series prediction looks pretty good right right now: the home side (who won the T20 world cup this winter) are surely capable of winning a test, but a West Indian victory in the series would be remarkable (and might have been thought of as such even before this disastrous start).

Australia begin against Sri Lanka today; the inexperienced Sri Lankans, recently defeated by England, may also find home advantage inadequate.

So here are the latest rankings.  England have gained more from beating Pakistan than India have gained from their well-expected victory. But the next few weeks could see quite a lot of movement as all three series progress.

Australia     166    
India         123  +7 
England        91 +19 
Pakistan       91 -19  
South Africa   76    
New Zealand    43    
Sri Lanka     -21   
West Indies   -82  -7   
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -315

A tanatalising start to a promising series

The test series between England and Pakistan certainly seems like an enticing prospect, as England's mercurial young team seeks revenge on a side who beat them last winter.  England have strong bowling but a thin batting line-up: Pakistan have a legspinner in Yasir (always a rarity to see in England), Mohammad Amir (back from a lengthy ban after his involvement in match-fixing whilst only a teenager), and in Younis Khan and Misbah ul-Haq, the two oldest batsmen still playing international cricket.  And in both my ratings and the official world ratings, the vistors and the home side started the series in 3rd and 4th places respectively, with almost nothing to choose between them.  And on Saturday, I was there, watching an absorbing day's cricket in a close match in which Pakistan were almost continuously in front, but never by much.  In the end, Yasir's spin was probably the difference between the two sides.  England, still without Anderson and Stokes, will get better, but pulling this one back is going to need some batsmen finally finding some form.

So in the ratings we see England lose a place, with ground to make up in the remaing three matches.  Before long, Sri Lanka will host Australia, West Indies host India, and New Zealand travel to Zimbabwe, so there's a lot at stake over the next few weeks.  But Pakistan have drunk the first blood of the high summer.


Australia     166    
India         116    
Pakistan      110 +17  
South Africa   76    
England        72 -17  
New Zealand    43    
Sri Lanka     -21    
West Indies   -75    
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -315

Still no whitewash, but a good series for England

Thanks to rain, the final test between England and Sri Lanka ended in a draw, though the home side had the better of the match.  For England, their last whitewash victory was in 2004, so it's been a long wait and one that will continue.  The three-match series still ended in a 2-0 win, and generally the home side's performances were good, albeit under favourable conditions.  The middle order of the batting lineup still seems quite unsettled, however.  Sri Lanka got better as the series went on but in general, an inexperienced side looked out of its depth in an English early season.

So under my system, the current ratings for the test sides are as follows:

Australia     166    
India         116   
Pakistan       93    
England        89    -6
South Africa   76    
New Zealand    43    
Sri Lanka     -21    +7
West Indies   -75    
Bangladesh   -172   
Zimbabwe     -315

 With England having been favourites to win, the draw costs them a few points and they drop marginally back behind Pakistan in the ratings. These two sides will meet, of course, in the second half of the English summer.  Sri Lanka return home to face Australia, while India will tour the West Indies, so the top four sides will all be in action in the next couple of months.

 And just for some contrast (which isn't very much contrast at all), here are the current ICC ratings:

Australia     118   
India         112  
Pakistan      111   
England       108   
New Zealand    98
South Africa   92     
Sri Lanka      85   
West Indies    65   
Bangladesh     57  
Zimbabwe       12

The normal provisos (i.e. that the numbers are not strictly compatible) apply,  The only difference in the order is that New Zealand rate above South Africa in the ICC list.  In fact, the England-Sri Lanka series hasn't changed the order of the ICC list at all, whereas in my list, England have gained a place (removing a previous point of difference). For what it's worth, the series win gained England 3 points in ICC score (and cost Sri Lanka the same ammount), whereas on my scale, England are now 18 points up after the three games.

Cricket world ratings, 30/5/2016

So the second of England’s three tests against Sri Lanka is now also over, with another win for the home side.  The Sri Lankan team is young, inexperienced and unfamiliar with English conditions; the retirements of Sangakkara and Jayawardene were two huge losses.  But at least the second test saw the Sri Lankans put up a bit of fight in the second innings, and they could be competitive at Lord’s if the conditions aren’t so friendly to swing bowlers.  Speaking of swing bowlers, Jimmy Anderson has made the perfect response to his poor series in South Africa, taking 18 wickets in two tests.  This doesn’t prove he can still be competitive in less favourable environments, but you can only work with the chances you have, and he’s scarcely bowled a bad ball so far this summer.

So the latest rankings show a further small adjustment:

Australia    166    

India        116    

England       95 +11

Pakistan      93

South Africa  76    

New Zealand   43    

Sri Lanka    -28 -11

West Indies  -75    

Bangladesh  -172    

Zimbabwe    -315

But England’s progress would be more-or-less undone if Sri Lanka manage a consolation victory to end the series.  Equally, three out of three is worthy of credit against any opponents.  In any case, Pakistan (who England have just now overtaken) will surely provide a sterner test.