Cricket world ratings 25/10/2019

A few weeks ago I predicted a good contest when South Africa toured India.  No such luck. India have just completed their third victory in 3 matches: they won the first game by over 200 and the next two by sucessively larger margins.  The current Indian team might not be the greatest of all time but at home they're simply awesome.  Their domination of my world ratings is clear:

India         256 +9
New Zealand   160 
Australia     159
England       151
Sri Lanka     113
South Africa  111 -8
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122    
Zimbabwe     -252                
Afghanistan  -295
Ireland      -339
 
The grading system on the official ratings puts less emphasis on India's margin of superiority, but still has them clearly top:

India         119 +4
New Zealand   109
England       104
South Africa  102 -6
Australia      99
Sri Lanka      95
Pakistan       84
West Indies    80
Bangladesh     61
Afghanistan    55
Zimbabwe       16
Ireland         0 

Bangladesh will be the next team to try their luck in India, next month; that month also sees Pakistan visit Australia.

Cricket World Ratings 13th October 2019

India have just won their second test (out of two so far) against South Africa; with only one match left, the series is won. The current status of my world ratings is as follows:
 

India         247  +9
New Zealand   160 
Australia     159
England       151
South Africa  119 -10
Sri Lanka     113 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122    
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -295
Ireland      -339

After a while when no team has held a massive advantage at the top of the rankings (and South Africa were themselves top as recently as February), India have built a strong position for themselves. Their current rating is their highest ever, and only Australia have ever has a higher score, although, as a measure of their advantage over a hypothetical mean team, it is boosted by the recent grant of test status to Afghanistan and Ireland. Their lead over 2nd place, an alternative measure of domiance, is not yet a record (it was 110 points as recently as 2017) but isn't far off. It's worth noting that in 2008, Australia had a lead over 2nd place of 245 points, so there's still a way to go before all-time dominance is reached, but their number 1 position is hard to question. We will see shortly if they can complete a whitewash.

Cricket World Ratings 7th October 2019

Presently, India have a strong cricket side.  When they lost in the World Cup semi-final to New Zealand it was something of a shock, given how assured they had look previously; in test cricket, they are the top-rated team and have just won their first test in their latest series against South Africa.  There remains a suspicion that they’re not as good away as at home; they were well beaten when their test side last toured England.  On their own turf, they appear close to unbeatable.

The current status of my world ratings is as follows:

India         238 +11
New Zealand   160 
Australia     159
England       151
South Africa  129 -11
Sri Lanka     113 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122    
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -295
Ireland      -339

The second test (of three) in the India-South Africa series starts on Thursday this week.

Cricket World Ratings 16th September 2019

A long English summer of international cricket is now over.  The Ashes have been retained by Australia, but the series was drawn 2-2.  The result seems fair: England won one match by the faintest of margins, but had the advantage in a rain-affected draw.  With the awesome Steve Smith, Australia generally looked the team most likely to, but their highest opening stand in 10 attempts was a pathetic 18.  Overall, it was an enjoyable encounter, but both sides still have selection problems going forward.  At the end of it, my world ratings look like this:

India         227
New Zealand   160 
Australia     159 -19
England       151 +20
South Africa  140
Sri Lanka     113 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122    
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -295
Ireland      -339

There' s little to choose between England and Australia, and that looks about right to me.  The official ratings tell a similar, but slightly different story:

India         115
New Zealand   109
South Africa  108
England       104 -1
Australia      99 +1
Sri Lanka      95
Pakistan       84
West Indies    80
Bangladesh     61
Afghanistan    55
Zimbabwe       16
Ireland         0 

South Africa tour India next month.  It's always hard for teams to win in India, and they won't start as favourites, but it should be a good contest.

Cricket World Ratings 9th September 2019

England have won the 50 over World Cup this summer; but in spite of home advantage, they have failed to retake the Ashes, the prize awarded to the winners of the series they play against Australia. That trophy is retained by its holders, not shared, in the event of a drawn series; and Australia, who won the last time the two teams played, are now one-up with one to play. England pulled off a freakish comeback win in the 3rd test, and came unexpectedly close to securing a draw in the 4th to keep their hopes alive.  But Australia, led from the front by their brilliant captain Steve Smith, have looked the stronger side throughout and now cannot be defeated in the series.
Meanwhile, Afghanistan lost every game they played in the Word Cup; but have just pulled off a notable away win, against Bangladesh, a very surprising result.  My cricket world ratings now look like this:

India         227
Australia     178 +27
New Zealand   160
South Africa  140
England       131 -28
Sri Lanka     113 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22     
Bangladesh   -122 -39     
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -295 +39
Ireland      -339

The official ratings, incorporating both the Banglades-Afghanistan result, and also India's recent victory in the West Indies since I last updated these, now look as follows:

India         115 +2
New Zealand   109
South Africa  108
England       105
Australia      98
Sri Lanka      95
Pakistan       84
West Indies    80 -2
Bangladesh     61 -4
Afghanistan    55 +30
Zimbabwe       16
Ireland         0 

The final Ashes test stars this week.

Cricket World Ratings 3rd September 2019

New Zealand lost their first test match in Sri Lanka recently, but came back to win the 2nd test.  India are other tourists who have done well, thrashing the West Indies in both matches of their recent series.  Australia also made a great start in England, reaching the brink of a 2-0 lead (with two to play) that would have ensured they retained the Ashes.  But in one of the most remarkable test matches of all time the hosts, who'd been bowled all out for a pathetic 67 in their first innings, scored more than this from their last wicket of the match, to rescue the game.  Hero for the home team was Ben Stokes, scoring an improbable six-heavy century while farming the strike. The net effect on my world ratings is as follows:

India         227 +23
New Zealand   160 +23  
England       159 +18
Australia     151 -18
South Africa  140   
Sri Lanka     113 -22 
Pakistan       80  
West Indies   -22 -24     
Bangladesh    -83      
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -334  
Ireland      -339 

So India are dominant, but it's very close for 2nd place. The latest official ratings are as follows:

India         113 -3
New Zealand   109 +1
South Africa  108 +3
England       105 +1
Australia      98 -6
Sri Lanka      95 +2
Pakistan       84 -4
West Indies    82 +5
Bangladesh     65 +3
Afghanistan    25
Zimbabwe       16 +3
Ireland         0 

These are extended for the first time to include test newbies Afghanistan and Ireland; the former already ranked above Zimbabwe. They also show signs of their annual reset - whereas my ratings are continuously updated, the matches that count in the official rankings are reconsidered annually. so everyone's rating has changed since I last looked.  But the pecking order is pretty much unchanged and similar to my list, except for the relatively elevated position enjoyed by South Africa.

Next up: two more tests to decide the Ashes, and a one-off match between Bangladesh and Afghanistan. 

Cricket World Ratings 18th August 2019

Since the spring, England have won the one-day World Cup, albeit by the narrowest of margins; at one point where 43-7 in their first ever test match against newbies Ireland, though they eventually recovered to win; and are 0-1 down at home in the Ashes against Australia after two of the five scheduled games, with Steve Smith's batting so far the main difference between the two sides.  Meanwhile, New Zealand, who lost the World Cup final by a whisker, have travelled to Sri Lanka; but have lost their first test there.  The net effect on the world rankings is as follows:

India         204 
Australia     169 +24
England       141 -22
Sri Lanka     141 +19 
South Africa  140  
New Zealand   133 -18  
Pakistan       80  
West Indies     2      
Bangladesh    -83      
Zimbabwe     -252                 
Afghanistan  -334  
Ireland      -339  -1


I have discovered some minor errors in the previously published rankings, hence the adjustments may seem slightly out compared with what you might calculate directly.  The most notable feature of the rankings as they are is the incredible small distance between a number of the leading sides.  This may sort out further over the remainder of the summer: England still have three tests to play against Australia, New Zealand play another test in Sri Lanka, while India travel to the West Indies before the month is out.