Cricket World Ratings 5th February 2019

Until recently, England had grounds for feeling optimistic about their fortchcoming Ashes series against Australia.  But while Australia have just completed a 2-0 defeat of Sri Lanka, England have just lost, badly, the first two (of three) scheduled tests against the lowly rated West Indians, who have played much better than expected, but who have also exposed weaknesses in England's side of all rounders.  England haven't blooded a test-class specialist batsman successfully since Joe Root; this suddenly seems a more serious concern than previously.  My world rankings currently look like this:
   
South Africa  207  
India         204 
England       157 -30        
New Zealand   141
Australia     135 +12     
Pakistan       80 
Sri Lanka      55 -12
West Indies    19 +31   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

They look better in the offical ratings, but the results from the series in the Carribean will only get added in after the final test.

India        116
South Africa 110  
England      108  
New Zealand  107  
Australia    104 +3 
Sri Lanka     89 -2
Pakistan      88   
West Indies   70    
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

England now have one match left to try and (partially) redeem themselves, but the West Indies must fancy their chances of a famous "blackwash", many years after the last one. Meanwhile, Sri Lanka must now head to South Aftica, where they face a tough task in trying to turn around their losing run.

Cricket World Ratings 28th January 2019

England have been on something of a roll recently, with nine wins in their last ten games. But on paper, their team really doesn't look much like a test side. Instead, it's a side full of all rounders (including two non-keeping wicket keepers!), and while it can sparkle on its day, it hasn't yet acquired that look of invincibility that really great sides have; and in fact, has just been badly beaten in the first match of its current tour to the West Indies.  Meanwhile, another series has begun with a home win, as struggling Australia have seen off an even-more-struggling Sri Lanka.  In my cricket world ratings, this has the effect of leaving South Africa in first place, as follows:
  
South Africa  207  
India         204 
England       187 -35  
New Zealand   141
Australia     123 +15 
Pakistan       80
Sri Lanka      67 -15
West Indies   -12 +34   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Both series resume at the end of the week.

Cricket World Ratings 17th January 2019

India have recently won their first ever test series in Australia; England beat India at home this summer, then cruised to victory in Sri Lanka; and South Africa, who also beat India not too long ago, have just completed a convincing 3-0 home demolition of Pakistan.  In my cricket world ratings, all three sides have very similar scores right now, and it's genuinely hard to assert than any one of them is unambiguously the best in the world. But it is fairly clear that this trio defines the current top three.

England       221    
South Africa  207  +9
India         204         
New Zealand   141
Australia     108     
Sri Lanka      82 
Pakistan       80  -9
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

The offical ratings are similar, although they put India clearly ahead and credit New Zealand with being a little closer to the leaders:

India        116
South Africa 110 +4  
England      108  
New Zealand  107  
Australia    101 
Sri Lanka     91
Pakistan      88 -4   
West Indies   70    
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

Two new series start before the month's end: England visit the West Indies, while Sri Lanka will try their luck in Australia.

Cricket World Ratings 8th January 2019

The end of India's final test in Australia was washed out.  India had had the better chance of winning; but they'll still be quite happy, as the draw ensured a famous series victory, amazingly their first ever in Australia.  Meanwhile, South Africa have beaten Pakistan for the second game in succession.  The latest version of my cricket world ratings looks like ths:

England       221    
India         204  -1   
South Africa  198 +11   
New Zealand   141
Australia     108  +1
Pakistan       89 -11   
Sri Lanka      82   
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Interestingly, India's 98 point advantage going into the final test almost exactly balanced Australia's home advantage under my system, so a draw almost exactly matched the theoretically expected result, and hardly altered the ratings of the two teams.


With the completion of the series down under, the official ratings now look like this:

India        116
England      108
New Zealand  107 
South Africa 106 
Australia    101 -1
Pakistan      92  
Sri Lanka     91 
West Indies   70  
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

Because the ICC ratings don't account for home advantage, Australia's series loss (not just the drawn final test), which the official ratings count as a single event (whereas mine count each test separately), make surprisingly little difference to the scores.

Pakistan's third test in South Africa starts on Friday.

Cricket World Ratings 31st December 2018

Three games of test cricket begun on Boxing Day.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, South Africa beat their visitors Pakistan, and New Zealand beat their guests Sri Lanka.  Neither Pakistan nor Sri Lanka have been in the greatest form recently, and Sri Lanka managed to lose by an almost preposterous margin of 423 runs, in spite of dismissing New Zealand fairly cheaply in the first innings, leading to their 0-1 defeat in a two test series.  Most interesting was India's away win in Australia, as the side recovered from losing the 2nd test to take a 2-1 lead in the series.  Teams from the Indian subcontinent often struggle away from home, and India, following a string of great performances mostly on home territory, have lost this year in both South Africa and England.  It's a tough ask to also tour Australia within such a short timescale.  But Australia have problems of their own, ever since they sacked (and banned) their captain Steve Smith for an embarrassing ball-tampering episode. They still have work to do to avoid a home defeat.  My current cricket world ratings now look like this:

England       221    
India         205 +23  
South Africa  187 +12  
New Zealand   141 +14
Australia     107 -23
Pakistan      100 -12  
Sri Lanka      82 -14  
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

It's interesting at the year's end to compare the ratings to where they were last year.  I've adjusted my methodology this year, and in addition, the entry of Afghanistan and Ireland to test cricket gave everbody else's ratings a boost by 67 points, but after making adjustments, the comparable numbersat the end of 2017 were these:

India         256  
Australia     189  
South Africa  180  
New Zealand   131   
Sri Lanka     111   
England       100   
Pakistan       54   
West Indies   -13   
Bangladesh    -60   
Zimbabwe     -280

It's been a good year for England, who after a poor start beat India at home and Sri Lanka away.   As we have noted, India have had some tough series and have slipped from the front. South Africa have been solid throughout the year; Australia, Sri Lanka and West Indies all appear to be going backwards; while Pakistan have actually moved upwards, albeit from a low base.

Meanwhile, the official ratings look broadly similar to mine, but rating India and New Zealand higher (at the expense of England and South Africa respectively):

India        116
England      108
New Zealand  107  +2
South Africa 106 
Australia    102 
Pakistan      92  
Sri Lanka     91  -2
West Indies   70  
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13 

The series in Australia and South Africa will continue early in the new year.

Cricket World Ratings 19th December 2018

After a long drought, Australia have finally won a test, levelling their series against India. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have played out the first of their two games in New Zealand for a draw.  The effect on my cricket world ratings is as follows:

England       221    
India         182 -24  
South Africa  175
Australia     130 +24
New Zealand   127  -9
Pakistan      112 -17  
Sri Lanka      96  +9  
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Both series resume on Boxing Day.

Cricket World Ratings 10th December 2018

New Zealand won their first game against Pakistan by the improbably small margin of just 4 runs.  They lost the second test, but have managed victory in the third, securing a series win.  Meanwhile, Bangladesh have defeated the West Indies; and India have won a rare away victory in the first match of their series in Australia, who have been suffering ever since they were engulfed by scandal on their tour of South Africa last winter. The effect of this on my cricket world ratings are as follows:


England       221    
India         206 +23  
South Africa  175    
New Zealand   136 +17 
Pakistan      112 -17  
Australia     106 -23  
Sri Lanka      87   
West Indies   -46 -47  
Bangladesh    -73 +46  
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Bangladesh's current rating is their highest ever.  The official ratings, meanwhile, have undergone a few updates since I last reported on them, and now look like this:


India        116
England      108
South Africa 106
New Zealand  105  +3
Australia    102
Sri Lanka     93  -4
Pakistan      92  -3
West Indies   70  -6
Bangladesh    69  +2
Zimbabwe      13 +11

So overall the pattern is similar, but India are still recongised on top, whereas in my ratings, they lost that position with their defeat to England this summer. Next up: Sri Lanka go to New Zealand, while India continue their Australian adventures.