Cricket World Ratings 8th January 2019

The end of India's final test in Australia was washed out.  India had had the better chance of winning; but they'll still be quite happy, as the draw ensured a famous series victory, amazingly their first ever in Australia.  Meanwhile, South Africa have beaten Pakistan for the second game in succession.  The latest version of my cricket world ratings looks like ths:

England       221    
India         204  -1   
South Africa  198 +11   
New Zealand   141
Australia     108  +1
Pakistan       89 -11   
Sri Lanka      82   
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Interestingly, India's 98 point advantage going into the final test almost exactly balanced Australia's home advantage under my system, so a draw almost exactly matched the theoretically expected result, and hardly altered the ratings of the two teams.


With the completion of the series down under, the official ratings now look like this:

India        116
England      108
New Zealand  107 
South Africa 106 
Australia    101 -1
Pakistan      92  
Sri Lanka     91 
West Indies   70  
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13

Because the ICC ratings don't account for home advantage, Australia's series loss (not just the drawn final test), which the official ratings count as a single event (whereas mine count each test separately), make surprisingly little difference to the scores.

Pakistan's third test in South Africa starts on Friday.

Cricket World Ratings 31st December 2018

Three games of test cricket begun on Boxing Day.  Perhaps unsurprisingly, South Africa beat their visitors Pakistan, and New Zealand beat their guests Sri Lanka.  Neither Pakistan nor Sri Lanka have been in the greatest form recently, and Sri Lanka managed to lose by an almost preposterous margin of 423 runs, in spite of dismissing New Zealand fairly cheaply in the first innings, leading to their 0-1 defeat in a two test series.  Most interesting was India's away win in Australia, as the side recovered from losing the 2nd test to take a 2-1 lead in the series.  Teams from the Indian subcontinent often struggle away from home, and India, following a string of great performances mostly on home territory, have lost this year in both South Africa and England.  It's a tough ask to also tour Australia within such a short timescale.  But Australia have problems of their own, ever since they sacked (and banned) their captain Steve Smith for an embarrassing ball-tampering episode. They still have work to do to avoid a home defeat.  My current cricket world ratings now look like this:

England       221    
India         205 +23  
South Africa  187 +12  
New Zealand   141 +14
Australia     107 -23
Pakistan      100 -12  
Sri Lanka      82 -14  
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

It's interesting at the year's end to compare the ratings to where they were last year.  I've adjusted my methodology this year, and in addition, the entry of Afghanistan and Ireland to test cricket gave everbody else's ratings a boost by 67 points, but after making adjustments, the comparable numbersat the end of 2017 were these:

India         256  
Australia     189  
South Africa  180  
New Zealand   131   
Sri Lanka     111   
England       100   
Pakistan       54   
West Indies   -13   
Bangladesh    -60   
Zimbabwe     -280

It's been a good year for England, who after a poor start beat India at home and Sri Lanka away.   As we have noted, India have had some tough series and have slipped from the front. South Africa have been solid throughout the year; Australia, Sri Lanka and West Indies all appear to be going backwards; while Pakistan have actually moved upwards, albeit from a low base.

Meanwhile, the official ratings look broadly similar to mine, but rating India and New Zealand higher (at the expense of England and South Africa respectively):

India        116
England      108
New Zealand  107  +2
South Africa 106 
Australia    102 
Pakistan      92  
Sri Lanka     91  -2
West Indies   70  
Bangladesh    69   
Zimbabwe      13 

The series in Australia and South Africa will continue early in the new year.

Cricket World Ratings 19th December 2018

After a long drought, Australia have finally won a test, levelling their series against India. Sri Lanka, meanwhile, have played out the first of their two games in New Zealand for a draw.  The effect on my cricket world ratings is as follows:

England       221    
India         182 -24  
South Africa  175
Australia     130 +24
New Zealand   127  -9
Pakistan      112 -17  
Sri Lanka      96  +9  
West Indies   -46   
Bangladesh    -73   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Both series resume on Boxing Day.

Cricket World Ratings 10th December 2018

New Zealand won their first game against Pakistan by the improbably small margin of just 4 runs.  They lost the second test, but have managed victory in the third, securing a series win.  Meanwhile, Bangladesh have defeated the West Indies; and India have won a rare away victory in the first match of their series in Australia, who have been suffering ever since they were engulfed by scandal on their tour of South Africa last winter. The effect of this on my cricket world ratings are as follows:


England       221    
India         206 +23  
South Africa  175    
New Zealand   136 +17 
Pakistan      112 -17  
Australia     106 -23  
Sri Lanka      87   
West Indies   -46 -47  
Bangladesh    -73 +46  
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -320    
Afghanistan  -352

Bangladesh's current rating is their highest ever.  The official ratings, meanwhile, have undergone a few updates since I last reported on them, and now look like this:


India        116
England      108
South Africa 106
New Zealand  105  +3
Australia    102
Sri Lanka     93  -4
Pakistan      92  -3
West Indies   70  -6
Bangladesh    69  +2
Zimbabwe      13 +11

So overall the pattern is similar, but India are still recongised on top, whereas in my ratings, they lost that position with their defeat to England this summer. Next up: Sri Lanka go to New Zealand, while India continue their Australian adventures.

Cricket World Ratings 27th November 2018

England are on a roll at the moment: 8 wins in 9, and they've just completed a rare away whitewash, beating Sri Lanka for the 3rd test in succession.  Meanwhile, Pakistan, narrowly pipped in their first match against New Zealand, have gained some revenge by comprehensively winning the following match. My cricket world ratings now look like this:

England       221 +20  
India         183 
South Africa  175        
Australia     129
Pakistan      129 +31
New Zealand   119 -30
Sri Lanka      87 -20
West Indies     1    
Bangladesh   -119   
Zimbabwe     -252    
Ireland      -319    
Afghanistan  -351


Pakistan and New Zealand will now play a decider; the West Indies head to Bangladesh; most itneresting is whether India will be able to reassert themselves, on tour to an Australian side who've been struggling since the ball-tampering contraversy last winter.  England will be back in action in the new year, when they will tour the Caribbean.

Cricket World Ratings 20th November 2018

Zimbabwe won their first match away from home for 15 years when they played Bangladesh earlier this month.  But the home side have since won the second test match, drawing the series.  England, meanwhile, have managed to win two on the trot in Sri Lanka, guaranteeing a series win with one more to play.  The most interesting recent match, however, was Pakistan's first game in New Zealand, in which the visitors held the whip hand for most of the game but succumbed at the end by just four runs, the 5th closest test match in history.  The net effect of these games on my cricket world ratings is as follows.  The most striking feature is England's ascendency.  Well beaten in the Ashes, and defeated in their first home test of the summer, England now stand 7-1 in their last eight games, including a 4-1 series win over highly rated India, and now two away victories.  They may not be a great team, yet, but it's not unambiguously clear who is really stronger than them right now.

England       201 +24  
India         183 
South Africa  175      
New Zealand   149 +15
Australia     129
Sri Lanka     107 -23
Pakistan       98 -15    
West Indies     1    
Bangladesh   -119 +10   
Zimbabwe     -252  -9   
Ireland      -319    
Afghanistan  -351

The official ratings, meanwhile, look like this:

India        116
South Africa 106 
England      105  
New Zealand  102 
Australia    102
Sri Lanka     97 
Pakistan      95
West Indies   76
Bangladesh    67  
Zimbabwe       2 

The Bangladesh-Zimbabwe series, has, interestingly made no difference at all to the previous scores.  The other series are not yet complete and will only impact upon the ratings when they're done.

Cricket World Ratings, 10th November 2018

Two slightly surprising matches have been played this month.  Firstly, Zimbabwe won their first test match away from home since 2001, seeing off Bangladesh; and England won their first away victory since 2016, beating Sri Lanka.  The effect on my world ratings is as follows:


India         183 
England       177 +28  
South Africa  175      
New Zealand   134 
Sri Lanka     130 -26
Australia     129
Pakistan      113    
West Indies     1    
Bangladesh   -129 -36   
Zimbabwe     -243 +36   
Ireland      -319    
Afghanistan  -351

The recent changes made to my world rating system make them especially sensitive to unexpected away victories. Are England really the 2nd best team in the world, and moreover, within a whisker of first place? Well, they thashed top-placed India this summer, and moreover have now registered a good away win, albeit in just one game so far.  Meanwhile, Australia are struggling.  In truth, it's not clear who the best team in the world is right now.  England's surge maybe feels overdone, but it's actually an arguable positon, and a strong recovery from a rating of just 9 at the end of last winter's tours.  More matches to come in both these series; also, New Zealand will shortly be hosted by Pakistan in the U.A.E.