Cricket World Ratings 14th August 2018

India have been very strong over the last couple of years, but mainly playing at home; now they've followed a narrow away defeat to South Africa with two straight losses in England.  The greatest teams win home and away; but India now seem unlikely to assert their greatness on this tour, although with three matches still to be played, there's always the (unlikely) possibility of a truly world-class fightback.  Credit must go to England's evergreen bowler James Anderson, still a master of his art at the age of 36, though England's reliance on swing bowlers like Anderson is their own weakness in many parts of the world.  The complete failure of India's supposedly talented batting line up, meanwhile, has to be considered a major diappointment; save captain Kohli, they've hardly scored a run in the first two tests.

For the moment, India remain atop my world ratings, though this status will surely not survive a third consecutive defeat:

India         187 -23
South Africa  179  
Australia     166  
New Zealand   144
Sri Lanka     125  
England       123 +23  
Pakistan       40  
West Indies    15    
Bangladesh    -99 
Zimbabwe     -260
Ireland      -295
Afghanistan  -325

Cricket World Ratings 7th August 2018

Recently, Sri Lanka won at home against Sri Lanka; now, England have won their first test at home against India.  It was a close win in a gripping game where Virat Kohli was the standout player but couldn't quite swing things for his side.  It's another demonstration of how much a team's results depend on whether they are playing at home; for this Indian team, there are still four tests to go to prove that they are a great side, that can be fully competitive in unfamilliar conditions, and not merely a good one.  England will lack Ben Stokes for their next game - the violent incident that led to him missing last winter's Ashes series is finally now at trial.  Meanwhile, England's win has changed my world ratings without overturning the pecking order.

India         210 -26
South Africa  179  
Australia     166  
New Zealand   144
Sri Lanka     125  
England       100 +26  
Pakistan       40  
West Indies    15    
Bangladesh    -99 
Zimbabwe     -260
Ireland      -295
Afghanistan  -325

Cricket World Ratings 24th July 2018

Sri Lanka have just completed a 2-0 victory at home to South Africa; the latter are a strong side, but it seem it's really hard for teams not from south Asia to win there, and this result continues the pattern.  My world ratings now look like this:

India         236  
South Africa  179 -23 
Australia     166  
New Zealand   144
Sri Lanka     125 +23 
England        74  
Pakistan       40  
West Indies    15    
Bangladesh    -99 
Zimbabwe     -260
Ireland      -295
Afghanistan  -325

The official version looks like this:

India        125
South Africa 106 -6
Australia    106
New Zealand  102 
England       97
Sri Lanka     97 +6
Pakistan      88
West Indies   77 
Bangladesh    67 
Zimbabwe       2 

The next series will be interesting: can a strong Indian side repeat its mostly home success, away in England?  There's a full five test series for them, and us, to find out, starting on the 1st August.

Cricket World Ratings 17th July 2018

3 test matches have been played recently, and all have ended in comprehensive victories for the home teams, even though in theory the games might have been expected to be close. West Indies have beaten Bangladesh twice; a strong South African team has nonetheless lost its first game in Sri Lanka (there's one more match scheduled in this series).  The latest version of my cricket world ratings are as follows:

India         236  
South Africa  202 -25 
Australia     166  
New Zealand   144
Sri Lanka     102 +25 
England        74  
Pakistan       40  
West Indies    15 +26   
Bangladesh    -99 -26 
Zimbabwe     -260
Ireland      -295
Afghanistan  -325

Technically, this is Sri Lanka's highest ever rating; though as discussed previously, that has a lot to do with the fact that the rating is zeroed on the average test team, and two new (and presumed poor) sides have recently been given test status. Still, it's a strong 5th place for a side usually found towards the back of the pack.

The official version looks like this:

India        125
South Africa 112
Australia    106
New Zealand  102 
England       97
Sri Lanka     91
Pakistan      88
West Indies   77 +5 
Bangladesh    67 -8  
Zimbabwe       2 

The West Indies have swapped places with Bangladesh following their series victory.

Once South Africa go home, the Indians will tour England; then that's it for test cricket until November.

Cricket World Ratings 28th June 2018

The once mighty West Indies have been in a bad way for some years now, but had seemed on the verge of a rare series win in their tour of Sri Lanka: they'd won the first test, drawn the second and took a good first innings lead in the third.  But a second innings batting collapse was to deny them, and Sri Lanka have drawn the series to stay above England in the world ratings.The two teams now move onto their next series: West Indies entertain Bangldesh, while Sri Lanka need to host the South Africans.

India         236  
South Africa  227 
Australia     166  
New Zealand   144
Sri Lanka      77 +14 
England        74  
Pakistan       40  
West Indies   -11 +14   
Bangladesh    -73  
Zimbabwe     -260
Ireland      -295
Afghanistan  -325

In the official ratings, update only with the series' end, West Indies have benefitted from the drawn overall, and Sri Lanka have suffered a bit.  In this list, Sri Lanka remain behind England; but the West Indies continue to trail Bangladesh, though they have a chance to change this in their forthcoming matches.  Test cricket's recent debutants, Ireland and Afghanistan, haven't yet played enoigh cricket to get an official rating.

India        125
South Africa 112
Australia    106
New Zealand  102 
England       97
Sri Lanka     91 -3
Pakistan      88
Bangladesh    75  
West Indies   72 +5    
Zimbabwe       2 

Cricket World Ratings 20th June 2018

England won their second test against Pakistan.  It's a much needed win after a terrible run, but Pakistan have now drawn their last two series in England.  England have been much less competitive in Pakistan's adopted home of the United Arab Emirates (where they play due to security concerns in their real homeland), where the team have been regularly well beaten.

Meanwhile, the West Indies won their first game in Sri Lanka, and drew their second; and Afghanistan have been admitted to test cricket, playing (and losing) their first match against India.  As I discussed in my last post, when Ireland were admitted, my ratings measure each team's superiority (or otherwise) to an average test team, and newcomers are assumed to rate at the bottom; so these two new admissions have sent everybody else's score upwards, which is not ideal, but there's no absolute scale to measure cricketing achievement: you have to zero the ratings somewhere.

So the current charts are as follows:

India         236 +30 
South Africa  227 +30  
Australia     166 +29  
New Zealand   144 +29 
England        74 +47
Sri Lanka      63  +2    
Pakistan       40 +12 
West Indies     3 +57  
Bangladesh    -73 +40 
Zimbabwe     -260 +29
Ireland      -295 +30
Afghanistan  -325

The official ratings don't include unfinished series (Sri Lanka and West Indies still have a game to play); don't yet include the two new nations; and undergo an annual revision which introduces some discontinuities; so there are some differences, although the top seven teams are the same in both cases.  It's notable that in the official lists, Bangladesh, who've had a scattering of decent results in the last couple of years, now rate quite clearly above the once mighty West Indies:

India        125 +4
South Africa 112 -5
Australia    106 +4
New Zealand  102 
England       97
Sri Lanka     94 -1
Pakistan      88
Bangladesh    75 +4  
West Indies   67 -5    
Zimbabwe       2 +1 

Cricket World Ratings 28th May 2018

Under two years ago, England and Pakistan were among the teams fighting it out for the title of best in the world, since when, they've both had a pretty torrid time.  Now Pakistan return to England, and, in spite of the disadvantage of having to play under English conditions in May, they've won the first test clearly.  England seem in disarry, unable to find players with confidence or ability.

In spite of this, England's nominal ranking in my ratings system is improved - because of another match that Pakistan have played, a game in which they beat Ireland.  This was Ireland's first ever test match.  My ratings system (i) measures differences in performance between teams, not absolute performance (ii) is arbitrarily zeroed on the mean of all teams and (iii) enters a new team in the system at the previously lowest rating, then adjusting the ratings of all existing teams to keep the zero point.  It's not a bad metric, but the addition of a new side gives everyone else an immediate boost in nominal score.  The point to remember is that the difference in rating between two sides is what is designed to indicate the win probability - so if the gap is 100, that's the same whether or not we're talking about 200-100 or 125-25.  But the change has had the slightly odd effect of giving Bangladesh, for example, their highest ever rating under the system.

So the current ratings are as follows: England will be very keen to arrest their downward slide, but it's hard to see too many signs of hope.


India         206 +32   
South Africa  197 +32  
Australia     137 +32  
New Zealand   115 +32 
Sri Lanka      61 +32 
Pakistan       28 +55
England        27 +12 
West Indies   -54 +32
Bangladesh   -103 +32  
Zimbabwe     -289 +33
Ireland      -325