Cricket World Ratings 28th May 2018

Under two years ago, England and Pakistan were among the teams fighting it out for the title of best in the world, since when, they've both had a pretty torrid time.  Now Pakistan return to England, and, in spite of the disadvantage of having to play under English conditions in May, they've won the first test clearly.  England seem in disarry, unable to find players with confidence or ability.

In spite of this, England's nominal ranking in my ratings system is improved - because of another match that Pakistan have played, a game in which they beat Ireland.  This was Ireland's first ever test match.  My ratings system (i) measures differences in performance between teams, not absolute performance (ii) is arbitrarily zeroed on the mean of all teams and (iii) enters a new team in the system at the previously lowest rating, then adjusting the ratings of all existing teams to keep the zero point.  It's not a bad metric, but the addition of a new side gives everyone else an immediate boost in nominal score.  The point to remember is that the difference in rating between two sides is what is designed to indicate the win probability - so if the gap is 100, that's the same whether or not we're talking about 200-100 or 125-25.  But the change has had the slightly odd effect of giving Bangladesh, for example, their highest ever rating under the system.

So the current ratings are as follows: England will be very keen to arrest their downward slide, but it's hard to see too many signs of hope.


India         206 +32   
South Africa  197 +32  
Australia     137 +32  
New Zealand   115 +32 
Sri Lanka      61 +32 
Pakistan       28 +55
England        27 +12 
West Indies   -54 +32
Bangladesh   -103 +32  
Zimbabwe     -289 +33
Ireland      -325

Cricket World Ratings 8th April 2018

A long, horrible winter is finally over for England.  Having been beaten in their first match against New Zealand, they got the better of their second game, but couldn't win. It's a disappointing end to a second disappointing winter in succession.  Before heading to New Zealand, of course, the team were thrashed by Australia; but Australia also have also just finished a disappointing tour, losing three on the trot to South Africa (and losing their captain and coach to boot after a ball tampering scandal.

So India remain on top of my version of the world ratings:

India         174    
South Africa  165 +15  
Australia     105 -15  
New Zealand    82  -5 
Sri Lanka      29    
England        15  +5 
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86    
Bangladesh   -135    
Zimbabwe     -322

And the offical ratings don't look so different, alhough it's notable just how high New Zealand are rated:


India        121
South Africa 117 +2
New Zealand  102 +2
Australia    102 -2
England       97 -2
Sri Lanka     95
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   72   
Bangladesh    71   
Zimbabwe       1  

The next text will be Ireland's first ever test match: they'll play Pakistan, before the latter team play two matches in England.

Cricket World Ratings 28th March 2018

It's been a hard winter for England.  Already well beaten by Australia in their quest to retain the Ashes, the team are now in New Zealand, where they've just lost the first test after being bowled out for a mere 58 runs in their first innings.  A great result for the hosts, and an embarassing one for their visitors, who might need to ask some tough questions of themselves when they return to home soil.

As for Australia, a win in their first test in South Africa put them on course to potentially displace India at the top of my world rankings.  Two succesive defeats have put paid to that, and the second of these was particularly controversial, as they were caught in an act of pre-meditated cheating, using sandpaper to damage the condition of the ball.  Some old professionals believe this to be a storm in a teacup - all teams quietly manipulate the ball when they can, but to smuggle material onto the field for this express purpose crosses a line that has left many shocked.  It's hard to defend, and three players, including both captain (the brilliant Steve Smith) and vice-captain have been sent home.  With the side in disarray, it's hard to bet against the South Africans completing a series win in the final test.

So the world rankings currently look like this:

India         174
South Africa  150 +17 
Australia     120 -17
New Zealand    87 +14
Sri Lanka      29
England        10 -14
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135
Zimbabwe     -322 

And it's worth noting the South Africans have already beaten India this winter; a victory over Australia as well (albeit that both series are at home) will have made it a very succesful winter from their point of view.

Cricket World Ratings 18th March 2018

There's a really interesting series going on at the moment between South Africa and Australia; the winner will have a good claim to contest with India, who lost in South Africa in a recent series, the title of the best team in the world (especially if that winner is Australia, the visiting team).  And Australia won the first test; but they've now lost the second. The effect on my rankings is to restore the two sides to near-equality.  There are two tests left to settle the issue; the first of these starts on Thursday.

India         174
Australia     137 -20
South Africa  133 +20
New Zealand    73 
Sri Lanka      29
England        24
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135
Zimbabwe     -322

Cricket World Ratings 6th March 2018

This winter, Australia have seen off England; while South Africa (with home advantage) have beaten an Indian side that had accumulated a remarkable run of (mostly home) success. Now Australia are taaking their turn to visit South Africa; if they can do better than India did, they could challenge India for the position of top team in the world.  And they've made a good start, winning the first test.  They need to keep winning to take the number one spot; retaining the number two position is still more likely. The current ratings are below; the second test starts on Friday.

India         174
Australia     157 +16
South Africa  113 -16
New Zealand    73 
Sri Lanka      29
England        24
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135
Zimbabwe     -322

Cricket World Ratings 11th February 2018

Bangladesh managed a draw in the first game of their two match series at home to Sri Lanka, although they got the poorer end of a high-scoring contest.  In their second, lower scoring match, the visitors asserted themselves and took the series 1-0.  This has had a small effect on my world ratings, in fact, almost exactly cancelling out the impact of the previous draw (in other words, the 1-0 result was almost exactly as predicted, based on the teams' prior rankings):

India         174
Australia     141
South Africa  129
New Zealand    73 
Sri Lanka      29 +9
England        24
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135 -9
Zimbabwe     -322

The series has had a small net effect on the official rankings:

India        121
South Africa 115 
Australia    104
New Zealand  100    
England       99
Sri Lanka     95 +1
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   72   
Bangladesh    71 -1  
Zimbabwe       1  
 
Next up: in March, South Africa go to Australia.  If they can win there, having recently beaten India at home, they can surely make a credible case for being considered the world's best team; but Australia, following on from their 4-0 Ashes victor, will be confident at home. It should be a good series to watch.

Cricket World Ratings 4th February 2018

There have been some encouraging signs for Bangladeshi cricket over the past year-and-a -half: home wins against England and Australia, and an away win against Sri Lanka.  Now, playing the Sri Lankans at home in a two-test series, Bangladesh have started with a draw, albeit in a very high-scoring game that was many wickets short of a result.  Still, it's yet another reminder that the team are no pushovers any more, and much closer to the elite sides than they are to fellow minnows Zimbabwe. The second test starts on Thursday.

India         174
Australia     141
South Africa  129
New Zealand    73 
England        24
Sri Lanka      20 -9
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -126 +9
Zimbabwe     -322