Cricket World Ratings 8th January 2018

In late 2016, many teams were vying for the title of "best team in the world". Since then, India have been dominant, although mostly at home.  Now, they have begun a tough tour of South Africa, which will provide evidence of just how good they really are.  And their first match has been lost, to a team which was beaten on their tour of England this summer, to an English team that has just been well beaten by Australia for the fourth time in five matches.  What can we make of all this? Above all else, that it's harder than ever to win test matches away from home.  And whichever of the current strong teams next manages to beat a major opponent in an away series might have a credible claim to being the best in the world.  Neither my system of rating teams, nor the offical system, takes account of whether matches are played home or away - maybe they should.

So here's how my ratings currently stand:

India         177 -23
Australia     141 +12
South Africa  126 +23
New Zealand    73
Sri Lanka      29
England        24 -12
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135
Zimbabwe     -322

And here are the offical ratings, now incorporating the Ashes matches, but which won't integrate the results from South Africa until that series is over:

India        124
South Africa 111  
Australia    104 +7
New Zealand  100    
England       99 -6
Sri Lanka     94
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   72   
Bangladesh    72  
Zimbabwe       1   

The next match between South Africa and India begins on Saturday.

Cricket World Ratings 30th December 2017

Finally, after seven straight away defeats (and eight straight away defeats against Australia), England have managed not to lose a game, with Alastair Cook recovering form to make the major innings on a placid pitch in Melbourne; in the end, Australia had little trouble batting out for the draw.  Meanwhile, a one-match visit to South Africa by the Zimbabwe team has ended predictably in a home win.

The net effect on my world ratings is a small one:

India         200
Australia     129 -6
South Africa  103 +1
New Zealand    73 
England        36 +6
Sri Lanka      29    
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135
Zimbabwe     -322 -2

The South African win, meanwhile, has had an even more marginal effect on the offical ratings, which now stand as follows:

India        124
South Africa 111
England      105 
New Zealand  100
Australia     97 
Sri Lanka     94
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   72   
Bangladesh    72  
Zimbabwe       1 -1

Cricket World Ratings 18th December 2017

 For England, it's over.  The Ashes have been conceded, after three straight defeats, to an Australian side that (at home at least) has proved itself manifestly superior.  While England have won four times at home on the trot, and once in Australia during this interval, in the three away series they have lost, the score is currently 13 played, 13 lost, which should give some food for thought.  All three games this year have gone into the fifth day; but in all three games, the victor was clear.  Another 5-0 drubbing appears on the cards.  And three times in about a year England have lost by an innings after scoring in excess of 400 in their first innings.  The vaunted England bowling attack, so unplayable at home, just doesn't appear to have what it takes when the ball isn't swinging.  It's true, home advantage has grown in test matches in recent years; but England's last 10 away matches have seen eight losses (including their first ever defeat to Bangladesh) and just one win (also against Bangladesh).  Something isn't right here. It's also interesting to think that when Pakistan last toured England little more than a year ago, both teams were vying for the position of "best team in the world". But both have had rude awakenings since.

Here's my current test world rankings, in which the new realities are quite clear:

India         200
Australia     135 +13
South Africa  102
New Zealand    73 
England        30 -13
Sri Lanka      29    
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86
Bangladesh   -135
Zimbabwe     -320

Cricket World Ratings 13th December 2017

An easy second win for New Zealand over the West Indies has completes their series.  The Ashes series, between Australia and England, could be as good as over if Australia win the match starting in Perth today, even though there are still two matches to come, as the home team has two victories already to its credit.

India         200    
Australia     122   
South Africa  102    
New Zealand    73 +10  
England        43  
Sri Lanka      29   
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -86  -9   
Bangladesh   -135    
Zimbabwe     -320

And the official ratings look like this:

India        124
South Africa 111
England      105 
New Zealand  100 +3
Australia     97 
Sri Lanka     94
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   72 -3  
Bangladesh    72  
Zimbabwe       2 

I haven't  figured out exactly why the official ratings place Australia so poorly in comparison to mine, but if they continue the Ashes as they've started it, this will surely be corrected  in the near future.

Cricket World Ratings 6th December 2017

Three test matches have been played in the past week. In a match affected by severe pollution, Sri Lanka managed a second draw against India in their three-match series; India have secured a 1-0 series win.  The West Indies were well beaten by New Zealand.  And Australia took a 2-0 lead in the Ashes, and will be eyeing a possible whitewash against an England side that has had good results at home recently, but which appears ill-equipped to prosper down under.  My latest cricket ratings are as follows:

India         200 -10   
Australia     122 +14  
South Africa  102    
New Zealand    63 +10  
England        43 -14 
Sri Lanka      29 +10  
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -77 -10  
Bangladesh   -135    
Zimbabwe     -320

And the official ratings, now updated to include the India-Sri Lanka result, but not yet the two series still underway, look like this:

India        124 -1
South Africa 111
England      105 
New Zealand   97
Australia     97 
Sri Lanka     94
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   75  
Bangladesh    72   
Zimbabwe       2

Cricket World Ratings 30th November 2017

Sri Lanka managed a draw in the first game of their series against India; it's been rare recently for a strong Indian side not to win at home. Match two saw a big Indian win, however; there's one more game to come between the two sides.  Then, India will tour South Africa, which should provide a real test of quite how good a team they actually are.

Meanwhile, after 3 competitive days, Australia asserted themselves to win the first match of the Ashes series.  England did not disgrace themselves; but ultimately, failed to suggest that the weaknesses they might have been expected to reveal down under will not ultimately prove fatal to their hopes.  Match 2, a day-nighter at Adelaide which stats later in the week, was always tipped as their best chance; if they lose it, the rest of the series could prove very tough.

Finally, West Indies are about the start a series against New Zealand; this is another series where a home win is likely, though by no means inevitable.

The current world ratings now look like this:


India         210  -2 
Australia     108 +15 
South Africa  102    
England        57 -15  
New Zealand    53    
Sri Lanka      19  +2 
Pakistan      -27    
West Indies   -67    
Bangladesh   -135    
Zimbabwe     -320

Cricket World Ratings 2nd November 2017

Zimbabwe were awarded test match status in the 1990s, but with a small cricketing community, and political and economic turmoil, they've consistently struggled against just about everyone, as well as having been banned for a substantial period.  Recently, their results (from the relatively few matches they have played) have been so bad that they've come within 1 point of setting the all-time lowest rating ever recorded on my rating system: Bangladesh were once rated 1 point worse, although they've since substantially improved.  In the ICC ratings, their score had fallen to zero, meaning they had lost every match in the period used to devise a rating.  Now, however, while still losing a series, they've managed to draw a match, against the West Indies: the first time they've played a game without losing since they beat Pakistan, in 2013.

India         212    
South Africa  102   
Australia      93    
England        72    
New Zealand    53    
Sri Lanka      17  
Pakistan      -27  
West Indies   -67  -13  
Bangladesh   -135    
Zimbabwe     -320  +13

And the official ratings are now like this:

India        125
South Africa 111
England      105 
New Zealand   97
Australia     97 
Sri Lanka     94
Pakistan      88  
West Indies   75  
Bangladesh    72   
Zimbabwe       2 +2

The next test match will see Sri Lanka play in India; England's series in Australia begins shortly afterwards.