Cricket World Ratings 3rd December 2016

One match has been played in each of three test series since I last updated the blog.  Australia came back to win the dead rubber in their series against South Africa; New Zealand effected a remarkably rapid dismissal of Pakistan in the final session of the two teams' second game to secure a whitewash; while India completed their second successive defeat of England in a five match series they can now no longer lose (in theory, with two matches still to come, England could escape with a draw, although that would indeed be a rather remarkable case of escapology).  A few months ago, Australia, England and Pakistan were all among the teams vying for the position of the number one in the world; now, India seem to be fairly clearly on top, and remakrably, in my world ranking system, Sri Lanka have risen to fourth place, following their walloping of Australia and the subsequent struggles of many of their rivals. Here are rankings in full:

India         164 +12
South Africa  102 -20   
Australia      82 +21
Sri Lanka      57    
England        44 -12  
New Zealand    41 +19
Pakistan       41 -19
West Indies   -58    
Bangladesh   -148    
Zimbabwe     -325

And here are the offical ICC ratings (which don't yet take account of the India v England series, and which in general are more resillient in the face of recent results:

India        115
England      105
Australia    105 -3
Pakistan     102 -7
South Africa 102 +6
New Zealand   96 +5
Sri Lanka     96
West Indies   69
Bangladesh    65
Zimbabwe       5

Nonetheless, it's safe to say it will be a major surprise if England still hold second place after two more tests against India.

Cricket World Ratings 21st November 2016

A lot of cricket has been played in the past few weeks, beginning with a momentous game.  Bangladesh had never previously won a test against opponents more illustrious than the West Indies or Zimbabwe; but on a turning wicket, they only just fell short of England in the first test of the two nation’s two-match series.  Another turner for the second test, and again England, so effective recently on seaming pitches, looked out of their depth as bowlers and players of spin.  This time, Bangladesh were not to be denied; and the team secured a famous win.  Logically, Bangladesh should become a place where cricket can flourish, with a large, and interested, population. This win may perhaps be remembered as an important step on that journey.

England then had to travel to top-ranked India, for an even more demanding challenge.  But they secured the better of a draw in the first test, with big runs for five of their top six batsmen (who had collectively looked out-of-sorts even in the summer in England, and even more so in Bangldesh).  But, admittedly after losing a crucial toss, the home side crushed their visitors in the second game of what will be a five game series.  England may win a game along the way, but, unlike the side that toured India in 2011, this doesn’t look to be a team that can come home with a series win (or even a draw).  India’s status as world number ones looks secure for a while.

Sri Lanka recently provided a shock to the system by delivering a 3-0 walloping to their visitors Australia, who had arrived on tour with the number one rating that now belongs to India; they’ve followed this up with a pair of unsurprising victories over Zimbabwe. Very briefly, in between, Pakistan grabbed the number one spot (there are a lot of teams quite close in terms of ability at the moment).  But after beating the West Indies in the first two matches that the two teams had played, they lost the final game, and have now made a losing start to their tour of New Zealand. So one-by-one, India’s rivals for the top spot appear to be falling away.

Even more strikingly, Australia have started their home series against South Africa with two more crushing defeats, meaning that the team have now been thrashed five matches in succession.  In 1984 the team lost six straight games to the then-mighty West Indies; this time, it’s harder to see an excuse.  Since early last year, a lot of fine players have retired from the Australian team: batsmen Michael Clarke and Chris Rogers, wicket keeper Brad Haddin, all-rounder Shane Watson plus the team’s erratic talisman, pace-man Mitchell Johnson; but new captain Steve Smith took over from Clarke and looked ruthless in defeating New Zealand and the West Indies.  Suddenly, however, the team looks very fragile.  Of course, we’re talking about an awful couple of months, and perhaps Australia will put this run behind them and it will be remembered primarily as a statistical curiosity.  But it’s potentially very bad for morale, and the fear will be that the conveyor of talent, which has run full for Australia for 25 years, might finally be empty. As an Englishman, however, I’m not making that call yet.

 So my method for rating the teams currently assesses them in this order:

India         152  +8  

South Africa  122 +32  

Australia      61 -32  

Pakistan       60 -59   

Sri Lanka      57  +5  

England        56 -38 

New Zealand    22 +22   

West Indies   -58 +37  

Bangladesh   -148 +29 

Zimbabwe     -325  -5

And Bangldesh's first win over a top seven country takes them to their highest ever score.  On the other hand, Zimbabwe's -325 is a record low for any side ever.  The ICC method, which only counts series upon their conclusion, currently rates the sides as follows:

India        115

Pakistan     109  -2

Australia    108

England      105  -3

South Africa  96

Sri Lanka     96  +1

New Zealand   91

West Indies   69  +2

Bangladesh    65  +8

Zimbabwe       5  -3

The normal caveat, that the numbers are not directly comparable, still applies

Cricket World Ratings 25/10/2016

Bangladesh have been playing test cricket since 1999.  In that time, they've found it hard to schedule test matches, especially against the big teams; and even harder to beat them.  Their only victories have come against Zimbabwe and the West Indies, the two other weakest teams in cricket's pecking order.  But they've just come within a whisker of beating England in an exceptionally well-balanced test match.  Of course, they've had home advantage, and it was the first test of England's tour, but still, the side has had a number of notable results in one-day cricket, and have sufficient talent that eventually a win will come.  But not quite yet.  The narrowness of the result, however, does point to the fact that although England came within a whisker of becomong the number one ranked team at the end of the English summer, the side really has a number of weaknesses which could be exposed badly when they visit India after their matches in Bangladesh.  When England were last number one in the world in 2011, they had a strong seam bowling roster and a run-laden lower middle order, both of which the current side has as well.  But back then, they also had an in-form top order, class spin bowling options and a well-respected wicket-keeper, all of which are absent from their current line up (though the oft-derided Bairstow actually had a good game behind the stumps in their latest match.  Still, it would be a bold person who at this stage bet on an away win when England go to India.

Meanwhile, the West Indies have (yet again) lost a match (to Pakistan, for the second time in their series) in spite of a valliant rearguard; but give away too many first innings runs and you're always going to be against the wall.  Neither of these results have much effect on my my form of world ratings, which measure performances against expectations; and so the current ratings look as follows:

India         144    
Pakistan      109 +8  
England        94 +5 
Australia      93    
South Africa   90    
Sri Lanka      52    
New Zealand     0    
West Indies   -85 -8  
Bangladesh   -177 -5  
Zimbabwe     -320

Cricket World Ratings 17th October 2016

 It's hard for teams from outside the Indian sub-continent to win there (and also vice-versa); with India and Pakistan currently playing home series, they are rising in cricket's world ratings.  One can note that Pakistan's home matches are actually played (due to security concerns in their actual homeland) in Arabia; but the pitches in the U.A.E. are quite subcontinental in character.  In fact, in spite of scoring almost 600 runs for the loss of only three wickets in their first innings, Pakistan only beat the West Indies on the last day by the relatively narrow margin of 56 runs.  India, meanwhile, were too strong for New Zealand and sent their visitors packing 3-0.  A small oddity: New Zealand now have a rating of (almost) exactly zero, i.e. they're as strong as the mean strength.  But this number is accounted for in part due to the relatively awful scores of Banglasdesh and Zimbabwe; six teams rate more strongly then New Zealand, and only three weaker.

India         144 +10  
Pakistan      101  +8  
Australia      93    
South Africa   90    
England        89    
Sri Lanka      52   
New Zealand     0 -10 
West Indies   -77  -8   
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -320

Meanwhile, the official world ratings have caught up with my system and India have leapfrogged Pakistan to take the top spot, although the Pakistan-West Indies game I mentioned previously will only be included here once that series is complete.

India         115 +5

Pakistan      111
Australia     108
England       108
South Africa   96
Sri Lanka      95
New Zealand    91 -4
West Indies    67
Bangladesh     57
Zimbabwe        8

Cricket World Ratings 4th October 2016

As the English summer drew to a close, four teams were in contention for the top position in cricket's world ratings: England, Pakistan, India and Australia.  The latter had held the top spot, but lost it after an unexpected drubbing in Sri Lanka.  When Pakistan beat England in the final test of their series, they went top in the official ratings; but in my system, it was India who grabbed the lead.  Now, however, India have beaten New Zealand for two tests in a row, guaranteeing a series win (there's just one game still to come).  The official ratings won't be updated until the series has ended, but it's already a certainty that India (even if the last match is lost) will gain sufficient points to end Pakistan's brief reign.  Pakistan have only ever been rated first once before (in 1988) and that was for a similarly brief interval. In my system, where India were already top, they've increased their margins, and the list now looks as follows:

India         134 +12
Australia      93    
Pakistan       93    
South Africa   90    
England        89    
Sri Lanka      52    
New Zealand    10 -12   
West Indies   -69    
Bangladesh   -172   
Zimbabwe     -320

And the very narrow lead that India had held is now starting to grow.  There's a lot more cricket to be payed before Christmas, but that includes more home test matches for India.  The safest bet is that India will further boost their lead, although the four teams who remain within a whisker of one another behind them will all have ambitions.  England's games against Bangladesh are among the next to come.

Cricket World Ratings 28th September 2016

New  Zeland is a small country, and their cricket team is usually dependent, even at its best, on a small number of exceptional players, such as their current leading batsman, Kane Williamson.  India is the most populous cricket-playing country, and their team is currently top of my cricket world rankings (though Pakistan still lead the initial list).  Williamson predictably made some runs in the first test of New Zealand's current tour of India, but equally predictably, it wasn't enough, and a ten-wicket haul for Ashwin helped India to a victory by almost 200 runs.  It's the first of a series of tests that India will play at home this winter: the net result could be that they strengthen their position on top of my ratings, and take the lead in the official rankings too, as neither system makes any allowances for home advantage.  Here's my latest rankings: the second test (of three) begins in a couple of days.

India         122 +12 
Australia      93    
Pakistan       93    
South Africa   90    
England        89    
Sri Lanka      52    
New Zealand    22 -12  
West Indies   -69    
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -320

Cricket World Ratings 5th September 2016

Dale Steyn has been the world's best fast bowler for the past decade.  But recently, injury has interrupted his career, and he's at the age where a fast bowler typically nears the end of his usefulness.  Thus every hiccup might now be seen as a harbinger of the end.  But he may not be finished yet.  After South Africa's first test against New Zealand was rained off, Steyn was instrumental in winning the second for his side, taking 10 wickets in the match.  It's a good win for South Africa as well, following disastrous series in India and at home against England, which saw the team fall precipitously from their previous spot as world number 1.

The effect of this win on my version of cricket's world ratings is to improve South Africa's standing at the expense of England's, although it's all very close:

India         110   
Australia      93    
Pakistan       93   
South Africa   90 +15  
England        89    
Sri Lanka      52    
New Zealand    34 -16  
West Indies   -69   
Bangladesh   -172    
Zimbabwe     -320

By way of comparison, here are the current ICC world ratings following the conclusion of New Zealand's visit to South Africa:

Pakistan      111
India         110
Australia     108
England       108
South Africa   96
Sri Lanka      95
New Zealand    95
West Indies    67
Bangladesh     57
Zimbabwe        8

  
Under the ICC system, New Zealand actually held 5th place before this defeat.  The results bring the ICC system into better concordance with mine, the main difference being the higher ranking that Pakistan claim in the official ratings.  But their hold on first place may not last for long.  Unless New Zealand can defy expectation on their forthcoming tour of India, the home team may well soon be in first place in both sets of ratings.