There have been some interesting cricket matches played recently. India won their first game on tour in South Africa, reaching a rating of 285 in my system, but lost the two subsequent tests in a closely-fought series. Bangldesh drew a series in New Zealand. Their win in the first test has been claimed as the most unexpected result in the history of test mach cricket, and my own data supports this. In my rating system, the difference in ratings between two teams, adjusted by a factor for home advantage, is used to derive an expected result (basically the number of points per game one would expect a team to make were an infinite series of matches to be played, with a win scoring one point and a draw scoring one half). One can therefore identify them matches where teams have lost games from which they were most expected to profit. The top 6 unexpected results, and the expected returns of the favourites, are as follows (winners underlined):
- 0.96 Jan 2022 New Zealand Bangladesh
- 0.93 Feb 1951 Australia England
- 0.93 Sep 2013 Zimbabwe Pakistan
- 0.93 Dec 1952 Australia South Africa
- 0.92 Feb 1990 West Indies England
- 0.92 Jul 2009 West Indies Bangladesh
So the list comprises three unexepected victories by test match "minnows", and three defeats for previously great sides (heralding, in fact, following periods of relative decline). But New Zealand have been so good recently, and Bangladesh so relatively poor, that this new result tops the list by a considerable margin.
For England, though, the Ashes have ended in disaster: one game in five was drawn, not lost, with England surviving with one wicket intact after rain had taken time out of the game. But a failure to reach a collective total of 300 even once in 5 innings is a worrying sign for the future health of the English game. My ratings now look like this:
- India 229 -56
- Australia 212 -1
- New Zealand 210 -38
- South Africa 146 +57
- Pakistan 131
- England 105 +1
- Sri Lanka 45
- West Indies -45
- Bangladesh -110 +39
- Zimbabwe -280
- Afghanistan -303
- Ireland -339
I'll post an update to the official ratings when one becomes available. Next month, South Africa visit New Zealand while Sri Lanka play in India.
