Two tests have been played in the last week, bith ending in home victory. For the second time in a row, India saw off the West Indies; while Pakistan, who'd failed to finish off Australia in the their first test, emphatically did so in the second. The effect on my world ratings is as follows:
India 183 +6
South Africa 175
Sri Lanka 156
England 149
New Zealand 134
Australia 129 -32
Pakistan 113 +32
West Indies 1 -6
Bangladesh -93
Zimbabwe -279
Ireland -319
Afghanistan -351
The large correction I'm now making for home advantage means India's expected victory barely moves the needle. Australia, howver, in spite of playing away, were still sufficiently favoured to be the team with higher expectations, and the increase in the k-factor means their defeat delivers them a bad blow, knocking this often mighty country down to an atypically low 6th place in the rankings.
Both series are now complete, so we can compare my rankings to the official ones:
India 116 +1
South Africa 106
England 105
New Zealand 102
Australia 102 -4
Sri Lanka 97
Pakistan 95 +8
West Indies 76 -1
Bangladesh 67
Zimbabwe 2
The ICC system doesn't yet include recent test debutantes Ireland and Afghanistan (it needs more data to be able to include them); is unsymetrical (gains of winning teams are not necessarily matched by equivalent losses of losing sides); and doesn't rate Sri Lanka nearly as highly as my system does. Nonetheless, it still has Australia in a modest 5th position. Australia were strong contenders to challenge for the number one spot, following their Ashes triumph last winter, but a cheating scandal and subsequent suspensions have for now halted their ambitions, and even England now stand ahead of them in both systems. England are next in action in Sri Lanka in November; Zimbabwe visit Bangladesh in the same month.
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