And we're off!

And it’s over already.  In under three days (two counting for losses to rain), England have beaten Sri Lanka in the first test.  The previous note about home advantage was actually written with the match already underway, but the end of the game only confirms the point: on a seaming English wicket, an inexperienced Sri Lankan side looked out of its depth. For England, the big plusses were a superb innings from Jonny Bairstow (as Alastair Cook noted, it looked as if he was playing on a different wicket to everybody else), and a 10-wicket haul for Jimmy Anderson, on a ground (Headingly in Leeds) where you might have expected him to have flourished in the past, but which has in fact been pretty barren for him until now.  After England’s series in South Africa, some were murmuring that Anderson, England’s longest serving player, might be in decline.  On one hand, this was an easy challenge for him.  On the other, he really looked good, pitching the ball on the spot and getting it to move off it with great consistency.

One feature of my ratings is that they change every match (the ICC ratings only change on completion of a series), so we can look directly to see the changes:

 1. Australia     166        

 2. India         116        

 3. Pakistan       93          

 4. England        84 +13

 5. South Africa   76          

 6. New Zealand    43       

 7. Sri Lanka     -17 -13

 8. West Indies   -75      

 9. Bangladesh   -172      

10. Zimbabwe     -315

England were favourites so they improve only slightly, but in the tight bunch of teams, they yo-yo up past South Africa for the second time in a few months (defeat in the final test of last winter having cost them this position).  One can also note that the gap between England and Sri Lanka has now widened to over 100 points (a 100 point difference having been used to calibrate the system as an expected result from each match of 2/3). The change moves my ratings a little closer to the ICC’s list; now only the relative position of South Africa and New Zealand differs between the two charts.

Fortunes can change quickly in cricket, but on the basis of this display, a subjective expectation is that England’s advantage is more than the numbers suggest going into the next match.