Cricket world ratings, 30/5/2016

So the second of England’s three tests against Sri Lanka is now also over, with another win for the home side.  The Sri Lankan team is young, inexperienced and unfamiliar with English conditions; the retirements of Sangakkara and Jayawardene were two huge losses.  But at least the second test saw the Sri Lankans put up a bit of fight in the second innings, and they could be competitive at Lord’s if the conditions aren’t so friendly to swing bowlers.  Speaking of swing bowlers, Jimmy Anderson has made the perfect response to his poor series in South Africa, taking 18 wickets in two tests.  This doesn’t prove he can still be competitive in less favourable environments, but you can only work with the chances you have, and he’s scarcely bowled a bad ball so far this summer.

So the latest rankings show a further small adjustment:

Australia    166    

India        116    

England       95 +11

Pakistan      93

South Africa  76    

New Zealand   43    

Sri Lanka    -28 -11

West Indies  -75    

Bangladesh  -172    

Zimbabwe    -315

But England’s progress would be more-or-less undone if Sri Lanka manage a consolation victory to end the series.  Equally, three out of three is worthy of credit against any opponents.  In any case, Pakistan (who England have just now overtaken) will surely provide a sterner test.

And we're off!

And it’s over already.  In under three days (two counting for losses to rain), England have beaten Sri Lanka in the first test.  The previous note about home advantage was actually written with the match already underway, but the end of the game only confirms the point: on a seaming English wicket, an inexperienced Sri Lankan side looked out of its depth. For England, the big plusses were a superb innings from Jonny Bairstow (as Alastair Cook noted, it looked as if he was playing on a different wicket to everybody else), and a 10-wicket haul for Jimmy Anderson, on a ground (Headingly in Leeds) where you might have expected him to have flourished in the past, but which has in fact been pretty barren for him until now.  After England’s series in South Africa, some were murmuring that Anderson, England’s longest serving player, might be in decline.  On one hand, this was an easy challenge for him.  On the other, he really looked good, pitching the ball on the spot and getting it to move off it with great consistency.

One feature of my ratings is that they change every match (the ICC ratings only change on completion of a series), so we can look directly to see the changes:

 1. Australia     166        

 2. India         116        

 3. Pakistan       93          

 4. England        84 +13

 5. South Africa   76          

 6. New Zealand    43       

 7. Sri Lanka     -17 -13

 8. West Indies   -75      

 9. Bangladesh   -172      

10. Zimbabwe     -315

England were favourites so they improve only slightly, but in the tight bunch of teams, they yo-yo up past South Africa for the second time in a few months (defeat in the final test of last winter having cost them this position).  One can also note that the gap between England and Sri Lanka has now widened to over 100 points (a 100 point difference having been used to calibrate the system as an expected result from each match of 2/3). The change moves my ratings a little closer to the ICC’s list; now only the relative position of South Africa and New Zealand differs between the two charts.

Fortunes can change quickly in cricket, but on the basis of this display, a subjective expectation is that England’s advantage is more than the numbers suggest going into the next match.

A summer of cricket

The late winter and early spring have seen no test cricket; they have seen the 20-20 World Cup, in which West Indies beat England in an unexpected final.  Now, however, the English “summer” is getting underway, with a short series scheduled in which the home team will play Sri Lanka.  Pakistan will visit later in the summer.  In terms of my ratings, Pakistan (93) and England (71) are quite close together; Sri Lanka (-4) are somewhat further behind.  England’s predicted outcome from a game against Sri Lanka based on this difference in ratings is 0.63; remember, a difference of 100 is calibrated to mean an expected outcome of 0.67, or a 2-1 or 1-0 result in a 3 match series.  Sri Lanka have a tough series against Australia to follow (although they’ll be back at home for this one).

Pakistan of course beat England in the winter, but England may be confident with home advantage (obviously we’ll have to see how the Sri Lanka series goes first).  England may also be confident having just beaten South Africa away (although the brief ascendency they had over South Africa in the rankings was quickly given up when South Africa won the last, consolation test).  This raises a big question about the rankings: they give equal credit to all results, failing to take account of home advantage.  This is also a factor in the ICC ratings, however, which equally do not take venue into account.

One last thing to do before this summer’s games get played is to compare with my ratings (which were listed in my last post) and compare these to the current offical ratings, which are as follows:

1.  Australia    118

2.  India        112

3.  Pakistan     111

4.  England      105

5.  New Zealand   98

6.  South Africa  92

7.  Sri Lanka     88

8.  West Indies   65

9.  Bangladesh    57

10. Zimbabwe      12

So the order is very similar, with the main difference being that South Africa, who remained on top in that system for longer than they did in mine, have now fallen further.  Also, Australia appear more dominant according to my ratings than they do in the ICC’s.  But both systems give a similar pointer to the summer’s matches.  Whether things go as expected we’ll have to wait and see.