Cricket World Ratings 30th December 2020

As a year of COVID-induced disruption comes to an end, three series of test cricket are actually being played at the moment.  South Africa and New Zealand have each started their latest home series (against Sri Lanka and Pakistan respectively) with a victory; but Australia, who took a 1-0 lead against India after their visitors suffered a catastrophic first innings collapse, have lost the second test, reigniting interest in the series (arguably a series between the world's two best teams at present) as a whole.  My world ratings now look like this:

India         226 +20
Australia     206 -19

New Zealand   199 +11     

England       161

Pakistan       85 -11 

South Africa   77 +19 

Sri Lanka      66 -18

West Indies    -4  

Bangladesh   -122   

Zimbabwe     -251     

Afghanistan  -303    

Ireland      -339

So India replace Australia in the number one spot, and South Africa and Sri Lanka also swap places.  Interesting as well is New Zealand's strong position.  New Zealand have never been number one in my rankings, nor in the official rankings, but having beaten India and the West Indies in successive home series prior to their latest win, they're getting very close.  All three series resume in the new year.

Cricket World Ratings 19th December 2020

COVID-19 continues to wreak havoc with the international cricket calendar; a recent England tour of South Africa was called out after several players tested positive.  In the Antipodes, the disease thankfully appears reasonably under control; and the West Indies recently toured New Zealand, recording two heavy defeats for their trouble.  India, now in Australia, started their first test rather better; but a spectacular collapse handed victory to the hosts.  Which serves to reinforce Australia's current status as the number one team in my world ratings, increasing their margin over their visitors, still their closest challengers.  The current ratings now look like this:

Australia     235 +15

India         196 -16

New Zealand   188 +13     

England       161

Pakistan       96 

Sri Lanka      84

South Africa   59

West Indies    -4 -13 

Bangladesh   -122   

Zimbabwe     -251     

Afghanistan  -303    

Ireland      -339

The official ratings (which won't incorporate results from the series in Australia until its completion) are similar, but they do show New Zealand in a very strong position (and New Zealand have never been top before, but they're very close to assuming that position, although I don't know if any result from the Australian-Indian series would put them there). The offical ratings also undergo periodic updating based on the passage of time (and not just matches), so they show some adjustments even for teams that have not played recently:

Australia     116 

New Zealand   116 +1

India         114 +4

England       106 +1   

Sri Lanka      91

South Africa   90 -8 

Pakistan       85 -1

West Indies    77 -5

Bangladesh     55 -6

Zimbabwe       18

In theory there's a lot of cricket due in the next month:three more tests for India in Australia, Pakistan go to New Zealand, while Sri Lanka go to South Africa then return home to host England.

Cricket World Ratings 1st September 2020

 England are generally considered a stronger team than either West Indies or Pakistan.  Moreover, home advantage is a big thing in test match cricket.  So that leads to an interesting question.  What level of performance, in England's two home series this summer, would England have needed to deliver to justify their a priori assumption of superiority?  Well, that depends on just how superior you had considered them to be.  My cricket world ratings, working on the Elo principle, make probabilistic predications for each match based on the teams' previous rankings; then adjust the rankings in proportion to the extent that the observed result was considered unlikely.  The predications also take who is playing at home into account.  And, broadly speaking, to retain their ranking over the course of the summer, England needed to win four out of six tests, while losing only one.  They came quite close, but bad weather washed out much of the last two tests of the summer.  And with 2-1 and 1-0 wins from their two series, England's end of summer ranking is actually down, in spite of a pair of series victories.

  My current world rankings look like this:

1. Australia     220    
2. India         212    
   
3. New Zealand   175  
4. England       161 -11
5. Pakistan       96 +11
6. Sri Lanka      84    
7. South Africa   59    
8. West Indies     9    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -339

And England finish still someway clear of Pakistan, but rather less close than they started out after two successive draws.

Meanwhile, the latest ICC ratings look like this:

Australia     116 
New Zealand   115
India         110
England       106 +2
Sri Lanka      91
South Africa   90
Pakistan       86 -1
West Indies    82 
Bangladesh     55
Zimbabwe       18

The official ratings are somewhat Elo-like, but give special credit for winning series, and this is England's first series victory over Pakistan since 2010 (you may remember that at the end of 2016, England had beaten every country more recently than they'd lost to them except for Pakistan).

Next up: if COVID-19 allows, Afghanistan will get to take on Australia in a real battle of minnows v giants, but not until November.

Cricket World Ratings 17th August 2020

 Rain is always a potential problem in any English summer; and it pretty much eliminated any possibility of a result in the 2nd test between England and Pakistan.  Which means that Pakistan can now not win, thought they still can draw, the series; in this year's compact schedule, the third test starts at the end of the week.  Meanwhile, there's a small adjustment to my world ratings. With England's higher rating coming into the series, and home advantage, a 1-0 lead at this stage actually represents a marginally worse performance for England than expected, and a marginally better one for Pakistan: the two sides are now adjacent in the pecking order, albeit with a large gap between them:

1. Australia     220    
2. India         212    
   
3. New Zealand   175  
4. England       172 -12
5. Pakistan       85 +12
6. Sri Lanka      84    
7. South Africa   59    
8. West Indies     9    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -339

Cricket World Ratings 11th August 2020

The strange, compressed summer of test cricket in England continues, with Pakistan following the West Indies as the visiting side.  Pakistan had much the best of the first test, but England's lower middle order came through in a succesful run chase to secure a win for the home team.  My latest world ratings now look like this:

1. Australia     220    
2. India         212    
3. England       184 +11 
   
4. New Zealand   175    
5. Sri Lanka      84    
6. Pakistan       73 -10
   
7. South Africa   59    
8. West Indies     9    
9. Bangladesh   -122    
10. Zimbabwe     -251    
11. Afghanistan  -303    
12. Ireland      -339
    

Two more matches will follow in quick succession.

Cricket World Ratings 28th July 2020

The cancellation of test match cricket due to the COVID-19 crisis is obviously not the worst thing that has happened in the world this year; but its restart is still good news.  West Indies have been playing in England, behind closed doors and with both teams isolated from the general public.  It's been a good series, made more interesting by the well-deserved victory secured by the visitors in the first game of the series.  But concerns that the West Indian batting line up was limited were proven in the last two tests; the first of which was a fairly competitive game, but the second of which was not.  England secured a 2-1 victory, but it was a good series and a welcome step back towards normality.

My cricket world ratings now look like this:

Australia     220    
India         212    
New Zealand   175    
England       173 -22  
Sri Lanka      84    
Pakistan       83    
South Africa   59    
West Indies     9 +22  
Bangladesh   -122    
Zimbabwe     -251    
Afghanistan  -303    
Ireland      -339

Interestingly, the series has actually worsened England's rating, and improved that of the West Indies, such was the difference in expectation based on their prior results.  West Indies certainly looked more competitive than that, even though clearly England were the stronger team, and the ratings thus show a narrowed gap.

The other feature of note in the list is, that after a long period of Indian dominance, Australia are top.  This happened just before the shutdown, when New Zealand beat India 2-0 at home and India fell from number one position.  At that time, however, India remained a long way clear in the official ratings.  The official ratings are calculated not completely disimilliarly to mine, but the system is more complicated and, unlike my ratings, gets annually refreshed with older results discarded.  That refresh has brought the offical ratings closer in line to my own:

Australia     116 +8
New Zealand   115 +5
India         110 -6
England       104 -1
Sri Lanka      91
South Africa   90 -8
Pakistan       86 +1
West Indies    82 +1
Bangladesh     55 -6
Zimbabwe       18 +1 

India have fallen as far as 3rd, and Afghanistan and Ireland, test cricket's two newbies, no longer have sufficient matches in the qualifying period to be included.  I find it a bit strange that all these changes can take place without any cricket actually being played, but the overall orders are quite similar.

Next up: Pakistan replace West Indies in the English "bubble", for another series the home side will expect to win but cannot take for granted. 

Cricket World Ratings 6th March 2020

India have been pretty unbeatable in world cricket recently.  They lost when they last toured England; since then it's been plain sailing, all around the world. Prior to their current tour of New Zealand they'd won 7 matches on the trot; 8 games in a 9 game unbeaten run; and had even emerged victorious, for the first time ever, on a tour of Australia.  But their latest tour has punctured this bubble, with the home side winning both tests by a big margin.  My cricket world ratings are quite sensitive to this sort of thing; and, with Australia in good form recently, they take over at the top of the pile:
   
Australia     220
India         212 -22
England       195
New Zealand   175 +22   
Sri Lanka      84 
Pakistan       83
South Africa   59
West Indies   -13    
Bangladesh   -122   
Zimbabwe     -251     
Afghanistan  -303    
Ireland      -339

The official ratings are generally less volatile, and India are still on top, but New Zealand have bounced up to second here whereas in my list they're further back in fourth. But both lists (albeit with different scales) agree at least on the top four teams, and that they are relatively clear of the chasing pack:
 
India         116 -4
New Zealand   110 +5
Australia     108
England       105
South Africa   98  
Sri Lanka      91
Pakistan       85
West Indies    81
Bangladesh     61
Afghanistan    49
Zimbabwe       17 
Ireland         0

The next test cricket sees England in Sri Lanka before the end of the month.

Cricket World Ratings 26th February 2020

Two recent test matches have been played; in one, Bangladesh surprised no-one by defeating Zimbabwe in a solitary game.  But in the other, an Indian side that has recently seemed near-unbeatable was demolished in its first game on tour in New Zealand.  New Zealand have a decent side right now, recently also saw off England, and India have lost some away tours in recent years. The tour isn't lost yet, of course (a second game begins on Friday), but the large margin of the home victory is certainly a shock, and has the effect of taking India down a peg in my world rankings.   The current standings show a much reduced Indian lead over a recently resurgent Australia:

India         234 -25   
Australia     220
England       195
New Zealand   153 +26   
Sri Lanka      84 
Pakistan       83
South Africa   59
West Indies   -13    
Bangladesh   -122  +9  
Zimbabwe     -251  -9   
Afghanistan  -303    
Ireland      -339

The Indian lead over their nearest rival was as high as 97 in November last year, and as many as 110 in August 2017; now it's just 14 points.  The official world ratings now look like this:
 
India         120
Australia     108
England       105
New Zealand   105
South Africa   98 
Sri Lanka      91
Pakistan       85
West Indies    81
Bangladesh     61 +1
Afghanistan    49
Zimbabwe       17 
Ireland         0

Cricket World Ratings 12th February 2019

Bangladesh have just visited Pakistan to play a single test match; the result was a convincing win for the home side. My cricket world ratings show a slight adjustment in response:
 
India         259    
Australia     220
England       195
New Zealand   127   
Sri Lanka      84 
Pakistan       83 +5
South Africa   59
West Indies   -13    
Bangladesh   -131 -5  
Zimbabwe     -242   
Afghanistan  -303    
Ireland      -339

Next up, Bangladesh again play a single test (this time at home to Zimbabwe), before (somewhat bizarrely) revisiting Pakistan to play a second game.  Also this winter, England embark on their third (!) tour since the end of the English summer, heading for Sri Lanka, while India travel to New Zealand.

Cricket World Ratings 31st January 2020

England made a bad start to their tour of South Africa, losing the first game.  But they’ve come back with three convincing wins, and its South Africa who have finished the series wondering about their future directions. Other tourists have also been successful in Africa, with Sri Lanka defeating Zimbabwe in the first game of their two test series; but Zimbabwe have managed to draw the second game, having forged an advantage they were ultimately unable to convert into victory.  My cricket world ratings now look like this:

India         259    
Australia     220
England       195 +43
New Zealand   127   
Sri Lanka      84  -9
Pakistan       78
South Africa   59 -43
West Indies   -13    
Bangladesh   -126    
Zimbabwe     -242 +10   
Afghanistan  -303    
Ireland      -339

Recent changes seem to have spaced out the teams by wider margings.  The official world ratings look like this::
 
India         120
Australia     108
England       105 +3
New Zealand   105
South Africa   98 -4
Sri Lanka      91 -1
Pakistan       85
West Indies    81
Bangladesh     60
Afghanistan    49
Zimbabwe       17 +1
Ireland         0

The next test cricket sees Bangladesh visit Pakistan in early February.

Cricket World Ratings 7th January 2020

Australia's series against New Zealand has now been completed, and with a comprehensive 3-0 win for the home side.  A disappointing result for thetourists, following their recent series win against England, who, by contrast, have just managed to win away, levelling their four match series in South Africa at 1-1, in spite of a determined rearguard by their hosts, with 2 matches still to play.  My world ratings now look like this:

India         259    
Australia     220 +12
England       152 +27
New Zealand   127 -12
South Africa  102 -27 
Sri Lanka      93
Pakistan       78  
West Indies   -13    
Bangladesh   -126    
Zimbabwe     -252    
Afghanistan  -303    
Ireland      -339

 The offical world ratings have been slow until now to represent Australia's resurgance since the return of the Smith and Warner from their bans for ball-tampering, but finally they too have Australia up into 2nd place:

India         120
Australia     108 +6
New Zealand   105 -7
South Africa  102
England       102
Sri Lanka      92
Pakistan       85
West Indies    81
Bangladesh     60
Afghanistan    49
Zimbabwe       16
Ireland         0

The next game between South Africa and England begins on Thursday week.